Charlie Kirk and Polarization

Posted By David On

Differences in openness to political violence across ideological and party lines is mostly being driven by liberal women, while men have more similar levels of opposition to political violence across party and ideological lines.

Large numbers of Democrats, Independents, and young people do not know that Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer was Left-wing.

The 53.2% of respondents who support firing those who celebrated the death of Charlie Kirk outnumber the 30.5% who are opposed to it.

Since July, 2024, the number of Republicans who agreed to some extent that the Right must develop a cancel culture of their own rose from 39.3% to 50.6%. Among Independents support rose from 18.8% to 30.4%.

By David Zsutty

 

On September 10, the prominent conservative influencer Charlie Kirk was killed while speaking at a campus event. The disparate reactions to his death suggest that America is not two separate parties, but two separate nations. While the Right united in mourning Charlie, many on the Left celebrated his death.

In order to explore polarization the Homeland Institute polled 752 respondents who are politically and demographically representative of white, non-Hispanic American registered voters between August 26 and September 2, 2025. The margin of error was plus or minus 3%.

While we did not balance the demographic characteristics of age cohort, sex, and ideology as closely as party affiliation, the findings from these characteristics are still suggestive of general trends.

  1. General Attitudes

We began by repeating several questions from a November, 2023 poll about polarization [1] and national divorce:

Q.1 How comfortable are you living around or working with people with political views which substantially differ from your own?
Results by Party
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Very comfortable 17.4% 14.0% 18.3% 18.5%
Comfortable 56.1% 49.8% 58.2% 60.3%
Uncomfortable 19.7% 27.7% 17.3% 15.8%
Very uncomfortable 4.7% 6.0% 3.4% 4.5%
I don’t know 2.1% 2.6% 2.9% 1.0%
Q.2 How comfortable are you socializing with people with political views which substantially differ from your own?
Results by Party
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Very comfortable 15.4% 13.2% 18.3% 14.4%
Comfortable 48.3% 37.9% 50.5% 55.5%
Uncomfortable 27.1% 35.7% 24.0% 23.3%
Very uncomfortable 7.6% 11.5% 5.3% 5.8%
I don’t know 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.0%
Q.3 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement?
“There is something fundamentally wrong with my political opponents.”
Results by Party
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly agree 17.3% 20.0% 9.6% 19.9%
Slightly agree 29.7% 31.9% 24.0% 32.2%
Neutral/No Opinion 19.9% 20.4% 22.1% 17.8%
Slightly disagree 18.6% 17.4% 19.2% 19.5%
Strongly disagree 13.4% 9.8% 23.6% 9.6%
I don’t know 1.1% 0.4% 1.4% 1.0%
Q.4 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement?
“My political opponents think there’s something fundamentally wrong with people like me.”
Results by Party
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly agree 39.2% 46.0% 28.8% 41.1%
Slightly agree 36.8% 32.8% 39.4% 39.0%
Neutral/No Opinion 13.4% 11.5% 19.2% 10.6%
Slightly disagree 4.4% 4.3% 5.8% 3.4%
Strongly disagree 3.3% 3.4% 2.4% 3.8%
I don’t know 2.8% 2.1% 4.3% 2.1%

The results for the first question about living and working with people with substantially different political views was mostly within the margin of error.

For the second question, there was a slight drop in being comfortable with socializing with people with different political views. Previously, 69.9% had replied “very comfortable” or “comfortable” which dropped by 6.2% to 63.7%. This was mostly driven by Democrats who dropped by 10.3% from 61.4% to 51.1%, compared to Independents who dropped by 5.7% from 74.5% to 68.8%, and Republicans who dropped by 4% from 73.9% to 69.9%

Thus almost half of Democrats are now uncomfortable or very uncomfortable socializing with people with substantially different political views, while a strong majority of Independents and Republicans are still comfortable. This suggests that political polarization is mostly being driven by Democrats and undermines the narrative that conservatives are closed-minded, hateful, or bigoted.

The third question revealed that the number of respondents who think there is something fundamentally wrong about their political opponents has drastically dropped since the previous poll. More interestingly, the drop was across party lines. Previously, 66.5% of all respondents, 72.6% of Democrats, 60.1% of Independents, and 66.4% agreed to some extent that there was something fundamentally wrong with their political opponents. Now, those numbers are 47% for all respondents, 51.9% for Democrats, 33.6% for Independents, and 52.1% for Republicans.

Why then would voters of all party affiliation be less comfortable now socializing with their political opponents if they are now less likely to think there is something wrong with them? The fourth question revealed the answer to that paradox: respondents across party lines are more likely to believe that their political opponents think that there is something fundamentally wrong with them.

Previously, 66.5% of all respondents, 72.6% of Democrats, 60.1% of Independents, and 66.4% of Republicans believed their opponents though there was something wrong with them. Those numbers rose to 76% of all respondents, 78.8% of Democrats, 68.2% of Independents, and 80.1% of Republicans.

Next, we repeated a question from the 2023 poll about whether respondents think their opponents take positions out of spite, along with a new question about whether they believe their opponents are sincere when they invoke values and principles:

Q.5 Do you believe that your political opponents take positions merely to spite or trigger you, and not because they promote the public good?
Results by Party
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Yes, always 4.3% 4.3% 2.4% 5.1%
Yes, often 16.2% 22.1% 13.5% 13.4%
Yes, sometimes 25.3% 26.4% 25.0% 24.7%
Yes, rarely 8.0% 7.2% 9.1% 7.9%
Maybe 15.8% 13.6% 17.8% 15.8%
No 30.5% 26.4% 32.2% 33.2%
Q.6 Do you believe that your political opponents say things or invoke values and principles merely because of the effect they hope it will have on you, and not because they actually believe it themselves?
Results by Party
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Yes, always 4.1% 2.6% 3.8% 5.5%
Yes, often 14.9% 20.4% 10.1% 14.0%
Yes, sometimes 23.9% 27.7% 25.0% 19.5%
Yes, rarely 9.0% 7.7% 9.1% 10.3%
Maybe 19.4% 14.5% 20.2% 22.3%
No 28.6% 27.2% 31.7% 28.4%

The number of respondents who think that their opponents “always” take positions out of spite rose from 1.5% to 4.3%, and those that think “often” rose from 12.9% to 16.2%. The number of respondents who think their opponents invoke values and principles they don’t really believe in was comparable to the number who think their opponents take positions out of spite.

2.       The Assassination of Charlie Kirk

The next section turned to the assassination of Charlie Kirk and the ongoing fallout:

Q.7 Do you generally consider it to be acceptable or unacceptable for a person to publicly celebrate the death of a public figure?
Results by Party
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Always acceptable 2.7% 3.4% 1.9% 2.1%
Usually acceptable 4.1% 6.8% 2.4% 3.1%
Usually unacceptable 25.0% 39.1% 28.4% 11.0%
Always unacceptable 64.6% 46.4% 60.6% 83.2%
Not sure 3.6% 4.3% 6.7% 0.7%
Age 18-29
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Always acceptable 4.9% 7.0% 2.3% 3.0%
Usually acceptable 4.9% 9.3% 2.3% 3.0%
Usually unacceptable 41.0% 60.5% 44.2% 12.1%
Always unacceptable 44.3% 18.6% 41.9% 81.8%
Not sure 4.9% 4.7% 9.3% 0.0%

Our poll confirmed two trends that a YouGov poll [2] conducted on the day after Charlie Kirk died found: that Democrats and those who are aged 18-29 are much less likely to believe it is always unacceptable to publicly celebrate the death of a public figure. Independents were also less likely to answer “always unacceptable.” Interestingly, the answers of young Republicans were practically the same as for older Republicans in contrast to Democrats and Independents.

While we did not replicate the exact numbers from the YouGov poll this is probably mostly explained by how YouGov polled voters of all races while we limited ourselves to White voters, followed by how we specified that we were asking about public celebration as opposed to the YouGov poll’s more generic language of “be happy.”

In addition to party affiliation there was also a clear trend across ideology:

By Ideology
Extremely Liberal Liberal Slightly Liberal Moderate Slightly Conservative Conservative Extremely Conservative
Always acceptable 6.3% 3.9% 1.5% 1.9% 2.2% 1.5% 2.6%
Usually acceptable 9.4% 8.4% 1.5% 1.0% 2.2% 3.1% 2.6%
Usually unacceptable 37.5% 43.5% 37.3% 21.4% 16.3% 14.3% 9.2%
Always unacceptable 37.5% 39.0% 58.2% 67.0% 79.3% 79.6% 85.5%
Not sure 9.4% 5.2% 1.5% 8.7% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0%

We next turned to how respondents feel about the acceptability of political violence, and found the same trends as for the acceptability of publicly celebrating the death of public figures:

Q.8 Do you generally consider political violence to be acceptable or unacceptable?
Results by Party
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Always acceptable 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7%
Usually acceptable 0.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3%
Usually unacceptable 15.7% 19.6% 21.2% 7.5%
Always unacceptable 81.5% 76.2% 75.5% 91.4%
Not sure 1.5% 2.1% 2.4% 0.0%
Age 18-29
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Always acceptable 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
Usually acceptable 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
Usually unacceptable 28.7% 39.5% 30.2% 9.1%
Always unacceptable 63.1% 51.2% 55.8% 90.9%
Not sure 4.9% 4.7% 9.3% 0.0%

 

Ideology
Extremely Liberal Liberal Slightly Liberal Moderate Slightly Conservative Conservative Extremely Conservative
Always acceptable 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Usually acceptable 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.3%
Usually unacceptable 28.1% 24.7% 19.4% 15.5% 8.7% 8.7% 10.5%
Always unacceptable 62.5% 71.4% 80.6% 81.6% 89.1% 89.8% 88.2%
Not sure 6.3% 2.6% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

There was little difference between male and female voters across party lines. But there was a major difference in how males age 18-29 responded:

MALE Age 18-29
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Always acceptable 1.8% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Usually acceptable 1.8% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0%
Usually unacceptable 21.4% 21.1% 22.7% 14.3%
Always unacceptable 71.4% 73.7% 63.6% 85.7%
Not sure 3.6% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0%

There was a dramatic spike among male Democrats age 18-29 who answered that political violence is always unacceptable compared to all Democrats (both male and female) age 18-29. Independents had a moderate increase and Republicans a slight decrease across these same demographic cohorts.

There was a similar trend with ideology:

MALE Ideology
Extremely Liberal Liberal Slightly Liberal Moderate Slightly Conservative Conservative Extremely Conservative
Always acceptable 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Usually acceptable 3.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.3%
Usually unacceptable 11.5% 26.4% 25.0% 20.0% 6.7% 10.8% 16.3%
Always unacceptable 76.9% 72.2% 75.0% 78.0% 93.3% 87.1% 81.4%
Not sure 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Among males, opposition to political violence peaked among slightly conservative respondents at 93.3%, while the gap between extremely liberal males and extremely conservative males who think political violence is always unacceptable is only 76.9% versus 81.4%. This shows that differences in openness to political violence across ideological and party lines is mostly being driven by liberal women, while men have more similar levels of opposition to political violence across party and ideological lines.

Due to massive amounts of misinformation being spread about the political ideology and affiliations of Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer, we asked a modified version of a September 15 YouGov poll [3] question. We substituted ideology for party affiliation:

Q.10 As far as you know, is the person who shot Charlie Kirk…?
Results by Party
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Left-wing 44.9% 13.6% 38.9% 75.3%
Right-wing 19.4% 38.3% 18.3% 4.5%
Neither 10.6% 18.3% 10.1% 4.8%
I don’t know 25.0% 29.8% 32.7% 15.4%
Age 18-29
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Left-wing 32.8% 11.6% 27.9% 69.7%
Right-wing 29.5% 51.2% 27.9% 3.0%
Neither 13.1% 11.6% 16.3% 9.1%
I don’t know 24.6% 25.6% 27.9% 18.2%

While the exact numbers differed we nonetheless found a similar trend as in the YouGov of Democrats, Independents, and young people being more likely to incorrectly identify the alleged killer as Right-wing rather than Left-wing. However, young Republicans were united with older Republicans in identifying the alleged killer as Left-wing. What this shows is that the mainstream media’s attempt to muddy the waters is actually working despite how brazen it is.

After asking these questions about Charlie Kirk, we then asked whether respondents think there is a party or candidate too dangerous to take power, even if lawfully elected:

Q.9 Do you think that there is a political candidate or party which is too dangerous to be allowed to take power, even if they are lawfully elected?
Results by Party
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Yes 40.4% 47.7% 40.4% 34.2%
Not at this time, but probably within ten years 19.0% 17.9% 18.3% 20.5%
No 22.5% 14.0% 21.2% 30.1%
I’m not sure 18.1% 20.4% 20.2% 15.1%

The answers of Independents and Republicans were generally within the margin of error from when we first asked this question in late 2023 [1]. However, while more Democrats answered “Yes” than Independents and Republicans, the number of Democrats who answered “Yes” dropped by 18.6% from 66.3% to 47.7%. This suggests that they are adjusting to the new normal of a second Trump administration.

3.       Moving Forward

Antifa has long used violence, doxing, and harassment to silence the critics of globalism and multiculturalism, and in addition to being an infamous proponent of open borders, many suspect that George Soros had a hand in the civil unrest of 2020.

We asked respondents their opinion on designating antifa affiliated groups as domestic terrorist organizations and with targeting George Soros and his network with RICO charges:

Q.11 Which of the following best describes your opinion on designating antifa groups as terrorist organizations?
Results by Party % % %
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 33.0% 6.0% 26.0% 60.3%
Slightly support 13.0% 5.5% 18.3% 15.1%
Neutral/No Opinion 12.4% 18.3% 13.9% 6.5%
Slightly oppose 6.5% 10.6% 7.2% 3.1%
Strongly oppose 25.4% 47.7% 19.7% 10.6%
I don’t know 9.7% 11.9% 14.9% 4.5%
Q.12 Which of the following best describes your opinion on investigating George Soros and his network for RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations) charges?
Results by Party % % %
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 43.0% 14.9% 30.3% 57.2%
Slightly support 14.1% 6.0% 16.8% 13.7%
Neutral/No Opinion 22.9% 22.1% 23.1% 14.0%
Slightly oppose 3.3% 5.1% 2.4% 1.4%
Strongly oppose 16.6% 31.9% 8.7% 3.8%
I don’t know 19.0% 20.0% 18.8% 9.9%

Support for designating antifa as a terrorist organization varied strongly across party affiliation, but with more respondents supporting this course of action to some degree at 46% than opposing it at 31.9%. Support for RICO charges against George Soros and his network was even higher at 57.1% and opposition even lower at 19.9%. Given that President Trump has already officially designated antifa a domestic terrorist organization, there is no reason not to aggressively pursue RICO charges when this would be an even more popular policy.

There has been an epidemic of Left-wing transgender violence, and many of the most violent militants in antifa are transgender. For example, while Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer was not transgender himself, he felt strongly about this issue and was dating a transgender individual. Thus, we explored public opinion on how to address this problem:

Q.13 Which of the following best describes your opinion on passing a federal law banning gender affirming care such as hormone therapy and sex change surgery for all individuals, including adults?
Results by Party % % %
% Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 25.0% 3.4% 15.4% 49.7%
Slightly support 10.0% 3.4% 9.6% 16.1%
Neutral/No Opinion 8.8% 5.1% 12.5% 9.2%
Slightly oppose 13.2% 8.5% 18.8% 13.0%
Strongly oppose 41.5% 79.1% 41.3% 9.9%
I don’t know 1.6% 0.4% 2.4% 2.1%
Q.15 Which of the following best describes your opinion on criminally prosecuting doctors who have provided or continue to provide gender affirming care?
Results by Party % % %
% Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 19.3% 1.7% 11.1% 39.7%
Slightly support 10.1% 1.3% 9.1% 18.5%
Neutral/No Opinion 12.8% 2.6% 17.3% 17.5%
Slightly oppose 8.9% 6.8% 10.1% 9.9%
Strongly oppose 46.1% 87.2% 49.0% 10.3%
I don’t know 2.8% 0.4% 3.4% 4.1%
Q.16 Gender dysphoria is currently classified by the American Psychiatric Association as a mental illness. Which of the following best describes your opinion on disqualifying people with gender dysphoria from owning firearms?
Results by Party % % %
% Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 28.2% 6.8% 18.8% 53.1%
Slightly support 14.1% 8.9% 15.4% 17.5%
Neutral/No Opinion 16.9% 19.6% 18.8% 13.4%
Slightly oppose 9.4% 10.6% 10.1% 7.5%
Strongly oppose 25.9% 46.8% 29.3% 6.2%
I don’t know 5.5% 7.2% 7.7% 2.4%

While banning “gender affirming care” and prosecuting doctors who provide such so-called care was low these are still wise policies due to the correlation between gender dysphoria and violent extremism. That 79.1% of Democrats were strongly opposed to banning gender affirming care shows that their emotional intensity on this issue is almost as high as their emotional intensity in supporting immigration.

Interestingly, despite general opposition to banning gender affirming care and prosecuting doctors who provide such care, more respondents at 42.3% support disqualifying people with gender dysphoria from owning firearms than oppose it at 35.3%.

4.       Cancel Culture

Many people were shocked by how openly the Left celebrated the death of Charlie Kirk. This sparked an ad hoc campaign to have them fired, and especially the ones in troubling positions of power like teachers, military officers, police, lawyers, doctors, etc. It should be noted that this is not doxing because there was no invasion of privacy through revealing of personal information like a home address, etc. It was simply a campaign to acquaint employers with what their employees publicly said.

We asked respondents what they thought about firing people who celebrate or advocate violence and terrorism, followed by firing those who publicly celebrated the death of Charlie Kirk:

Q.17 Which of the following best describes your opinion on firing those who celebrate or advocate political violence and terrorism?
Results by Party % % %
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 45.9% 20.9% 38.0% 72.6%
Slightly support 18.4% 19.6% 24.0% 14.0%
Neutral/No Opinion 11.6% 21.3% 10.6% 4.1%
Slightly oppose 9.7% 17.4% 8.2% 3.1%
Strongly oppose 12.4% 18.3% 14.9% 5.8%
I don’t know 2.1% 2.6% 4.3% 0.3%
Q.18 Which of the following best describes your opinion on firing those who publicly celebrated the death of Charlie Kirk?
Results by Party % % %
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 39.6% 8.9% 30.8% 73.4%
Slightly support 13.6% 12.0% 16.4% 14.1%
Neutral/No Opinion 13.7% 23.1% 17.9% 3.4%
Slightly oppose 9.0% 17.3% 9.0% 2.4%
Strongly oppose 21.5% 38.7% 25.9% 6.6%
I don’t know 2.5% 4.4% 3.5% 0.7%

The vast majority of respondents support to some degree (at least in theory) that people who celebrate violence and terrorism should be fired at 64.3% compared to the 22.1% who were opposed to some degree.

When we made this concrete about Charlie Kirk, support dropped among Democrats and Independents. Nonetheless, the 53.2% who still supported firing those who celebrated the death of Charlie Kirk outnumbered the 30.5% who were opposed to it.

We next repeated two questions from a July, 2024 poll [4] of ours about cancel culture:

Q.19 Which of the following best describes your opinion on the following statement:
“The Left has wielded ‘cancel culture’ to great effect for years. Until the Left decisively disavows cancel culture, the Right has no reasonable option but to develop a cancel culture of their own.”
Results by Party % % %
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly agree 13.8% 1.8% 12.6% 26.2%
Slightly agree 15.0% 3.7% 17.8% 24.4%
Neutral/No Opinion 19.5% 14.2% 22.5% 24.4%
Slightly disagree 12.8% 13.8% 12.6% 14.3%
Strongly disagree 32.6% 66.5% 34.6% 10.8%
I don’t know 6.3% 7.8% 8.9% 4.7%
Q.20 Which of the following best describes your opinion of a law making it illegal for an employer to fire an employee for exercising a Constitutionally protected right while off duty?
Results by Party % % %
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 26.6% 46.4% 28.9% 13.1%
Slightly support 18.9% 22.5% 17.0% 20.8%
Neutral/No Opinion 17.2% 12.2% 23.2% 19.7%
Slightly oppose 11.4% 6.8% 13.4% 15.7%
Strongly oppose 19.9% 12.2% 17.5% 30.7%
I don’t know 6.0% 5.9% 7.2% 6.6%

Since July, 2024, the number of Republicans who agreed to some extent that the Right must develop a cancel culture of their own rose from 39.3% to 50.6%. Among Independents support rose from 18.8% to 30.4%. There was also a sharp rise among Democrats who strongly opposed the Right taking this course of action from 50.2% to 66.5%.

Previously, support was very high across party lines for a law making it illegal for an employer to fire an employee for exercising a Constitutionally protected right while off duty. While more respondents would still support than oppose such a law, support has fallen while opposition has risen. Support drastically fell among Republicans and slightly among Independents, while rising among Democrats.

We next repeated a question from the same poll about whether respondents were more or less likely to support a business that fired an employee due to pressure from the Left and the Right:

Q.21 If a business fires an employee due to pressure from the Left, would it make you:
Results by Party % % %
All Democrats Independents Republicans
More likely to support them 5.5% 9.4% 2.9% 4.5%
Less likely to support them 45.1% 33.2% 47.1% 52.7%
No real effect either way 35.2% 40.9% 35.6% 30.1%
I am not sure 14.2% 16.6% 14.4% 12.7%
Q.22 If a business fires an employee due to pressure from the Right, would it make you:
Results by Party % % %
All Democrats Independents Republicans
More likely to support them 12.6% 5.1% 5.3% 23.3%
Less likely to support them 38.7% 57.0% 43.3% 20.5%
No real effect either way 35.0% 23.8% 37.0% 42.8%
I am not sure 13.7% 14.0% 14.4% 13.4%

Previously, the answers to these two questions were about the same, and firing employees due to political pressure remains more unpopular than popular regardless of which side the pressure came from. However, firing employees due to pressure from the Right is now less toxic than firing them due to pressure from the Left.

5.       Conclusion