Non-Interventionism in Light of the Twelve Day War

Posted By David On

The number of respondents age 18-29 who answered that the US’s relationship with Israel is a “major net negative” spiked from 9.3% to 24.6% over a mere year and a half.

Support for providing economic, material, and diplomatic aid to Israel in its ongoing conflicts plummeted by over a half from 37.7% to 18.1% among respondents age 18-29. Even more young Republicans now oppose such aid than support it.

Those who support direct intervention on behalf of Israel with airstrikes are outnumbered by those who oppose airstrikes. Support for intervention with troops on the ground is almost non-existent.

43.5% of respondents age 18-29 said they would oppose a draft through peaceful protest and 22.5% through non-violent civil disobedience, up from 25.7% and 16.9% in January, 2024.

The 17.3% of respondents who generally see foreign intervention as a net positive for the American people are decisively outnumbered by the 55.6% who see it as a net negative.

By David Zsutty

 

In January 2024, the Homeland Institute ran a poll [1] on non-interventionism and related topics in response to the Gaza crisis. To track how public opinion is evolving and in response to the 12 Day Iran-Israel War in mid-June, 2025, we ran another poll on non-interventionism.

We polled 847 respondents who are politically and demographically representative of white, non-Hispanic American registered voters from June 27 to July 8, 2025, and our margin of error was plus or minus 3%.

  1.     US-Israeli Relations

Let us begin with our questions on the US’s relationship with Israel.

1. For the United States, the United States’ relationship with Israel is:
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
A major net positive 21.1% 9.0% 20.2% 33.0%
A minor net positive 19.4% 14.6% 18.9% 24.8%
About equally positive and negative 22.4% 28.5% 20.6% 18.7%
A minor net negative 12.8% 18.0% 12.0% 9.2%
A major net negative 16.4% 21.0% 18.9% 9.5%
I don’t know 7.9% 9.0% 9.4% 4.9%
18-29
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
A major net positive 10.9% 3.8% 17.5% 16.2%
A minor net positive 9.4% 5.7% 7.5% 18.9%
About equally positive and negative 18.8% 11.3% 20.0% 27.0%
A minor net negative 18.1% 22.6% 12.5% 18.9%
A major net negative 24.6% 39.6% 20.0% 8.1%
I don’t know 18.1% 17.0% 22.5% 10.8%

While Republicans were much more likely than Independents and Democrats to view the US’s relationship as a net positive, including among young Republicans, significantly fewer Republicans age 18-29 see it as a net positive.

And the 20.3% of all respondents age 18-29 who see the US relationship as a net positive were decisively outnumbered by over two to one by the 42.7% who see it as a net negative. (While the age cohorts were not as tightly controlled for demographic characteristics as for party affiliation the results are still strongly suggestive).

For comparison, the number of all respondents who see the US relationship with Israel as a net positive was within the margin of error compared to the January, 2024 Homeland Institute poll. However, there was a small increase in those who answered “about equally positive and negative” and “a major net negative.”

Among respondents age 18-29, there was a decline from the 15.3% and 19.1% who said that the US-Israeli relationship was respectively a major net positive and a minor net positive in January 2024 to 10.9% and 9.4% in this poll. And the number of respondents age 18-29 who answered a “major net negative” spiked from 9.3% to 24.6% over a mere year and a half.

Next, in comparison to our January 2024 poll, there was a very slight increase in respondents claiming that they could think of a concrete example of Israel aiding American interests off the top of their heads, and a moderate increase by about 10% from 29.3% to 41.9% claiming they could think of a concrete example of Israel hurting American interests:

2. Off the top of your head, can you think of a concrete example of Israel aiding American interests?
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans Another
Yes 26.9% 16.9% 27.0% 35.5% 20.0%
No 73.1% 83.1% 73.0% 64.5% 80.0%
3. Off the top of your head, can you think of a concrete example of Israel hurting American interests?
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans Another
Yes 41.9% 53.2% 42.5% 31.2% 60.0%
No 58.1% 46.8% 57.5% 68.8% 40.0%

2.      Bomb the Third World, Import the Third World

Since the Global War on Terror, there has been a general trend of Western countries both intervening in and accepting migrants from undeveloped countries. This trend of “bomb the third world, import the third world” naturally heightens the risk of terror attacks. Thus, we asked respondents several questions about this trend:

3. Due the United States’ support for Israel, do you think that the risk of terrorist attacks in the United States homeland has:
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
Greatly increased 15.5% 17.2% 15.9% 14.1%
Somewhat increased 48.9% 51.7% 50.2% 45.9%
Stayed about the same 30.3% 26.2% 25.3% 37.0%
Somewhat decreased 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8%
Greatly decreased 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
I don’t know 3.2% 3.0% 6.4% 0.6%
4. Do you think that accepting Palestinian refugees from Gaza would cause the risk of terrorist attacks and violent crime in the United States homeland to:
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
Greatly increase 24.1% 6.7% 21.9% 41.0%
Somewhat increase 32.8% 27.0% 34.8% 37.0%
Stay about the same 35.9% 55.8% 35.6% 19.0%
Somewhat decrease 1.2% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Greatly decrease 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
I don’t know 5.8% 7.1% 6.9% 2.8%
5. Which of the following best describes your position on accepting Palestinian refugees from Gaza:
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 13.6% 30.0% 11.2% 0.9%
Somewhat support 17.4% 31.1% 16.7% 7.3%
Neutral 16.2% 19.9% 18.0% 10.7%
Somewhat oppose 16.8% 9.7% 18.9% 21.4%
Strongly oppose 33.3% 6.4% 30.9% 58.4%
I don’t know 2.8% 3.0% 4.3% 1.2%

The results for the first two questions about terrorist attacks in the US homeland were within the margin of error compared to our January 2024 poll. The results for the third question on accepting refugees from Gaza was also relatively unchanged, although there was a slight decrease in respondents who “somewhat support” accepting such refugees and a slight increase among those who “don’t know.”

The 50.1% of respondents in this poll who oppose accepting Palestinian refugees from Gaza decisively outnumber the 31% who would support accepting Gaza refugees. Support for accepting Gaza refugees was strongly driven by Democrats while Independents, and especially Republicans, were staunchly opposed.

3.     Intervention on Behalf of Israel

In both this poll and the January 2024 poll, we asked respondents several questions about intervening in current Middle East conflicts.

The 38.8% of respondents who support providing economic, material, and diplomatic aid to Israel in its ongoing conflicts dropped by 12.9% from 51.7% in the previous poll to 38.8% in this poll. 44.7% of respondents now oppose providing such support.

Even more striking was how among respondents age 18-29, support for providing such aid plummeted by over a half from 37.7% to 18.1%. Even among Republicans age 18-29, support dropped from 52.1% to 37.8% with more young Republicans now opposing such aid than supporting it.

6. Which of the following best describes your stance on United States providing economic, material, and diplomatic aid to Israel in the ongoing Israel-Hamas War and related conflicts?
Results by Party      
% Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 17.5% 7.9% 14.6% 28.4%
Somewhat support 21.3% 15.0% 21.5% 27.2%
Neutral 15.5% 14.6% 17.6% 14.7%
Somewhat oppose 19.4% 25.5% 19.3% 15.3%
Strongly oppose 25.3% 36.0% 24.9% 13.8%
I don’t know 1.2% 1.1% 2.1% 0.6%
18-29      
% Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 8.7% 3.8% 12.5% 13.5%
Somewhat support 9.4% 3.8% 5.0% 24.3%
Neutral 15.2% 7.5% 25.0% 13.5%
Somewhat oppose 24.6% 24.5% 30.0% 24.3%
Strongly oppose 38.4% 58.5% 22.5% 18.9%
I don’t know 3.6% 1.9% 5.0% 5.4%

Our previous poll asked respondents their opinion on direct military intervention in Israel’s conflicts with boots on the ground or air strikes. Since direct intervention has already happened with a single US strategic strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22, 2025, we decided to ask about boots on the ground and air strikes separately:

7. Which of the following best describes your stance on United States directly intervening on behalf of Israel in the Israel-Hamas War and related conflicts such as the Iran-Israel War with airstrikes?
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 17.8% 2.2% 13.7% 34.6%
Somewhat support 19.2% 9.0% 18.5% 28.7%
Neutral 8.7% 5.6% 10.7% 9.8%
Somewhat oppose 19.2% 24.0% 21.9% 14.7%
Strongly oppose 33.2% 56.9% 32.6% 11.3%
I don’t know 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 0.9%
18-29
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 6.5% 0.0% 7.5% 16.2%
Somewhat support 14.5% 3.8% 12.5% 32.4%
Neutral 10.1% 3.8% 17.5% 10.8%
Somewhat oppose 21.0% 13.2% 30.0% 27.0%
Strongly oppose 43.5% 73.6% 30.0% 8.1%
I don’t know 4.3% 5.7% 2.5% 5.4%
8. Which of the following best describes your stance on United States directly intervening on behalf of Israel in the Israel-Hamas War and related conflicts such as the Iran-Israel War with troops on the ground?
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 4.5% 0.4% 3.4% 8.9%
Somewhat support 7.9% 4.1% 5.2% 13.1%
Neutral 7.3% 7.1% 7.7% 7.6%
Somewhat oppose 18.7% 13.5% 19.3% 22.9%
Strongly oppose 60.0% 71.9% 61.8% 47.4%
I don’t know 1.7% 3.0% 2.6% 0.0%
18-29
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
Strongly support 1.4% 0.0% 2.5% 2.7%
Somewhat support 5.8% 3.8% 7.5% 8.1%
Neutral 5.1% 5.7% 7.5% 2.7%
Somewhat oppose 23.9% 11.3% 27.5% 37.8%
Strongly oppose 59.4% 69.8% 52.5% 48.6%
I don’t know 4.3% 9.4% 2.5% 0.0%

Overall, respondents who favor direct intervention with airstrikes at 37% are outnumbered by those who oppose airstrikes at 52.4%. And while more Republicans support airstrikes than oppose them, including Republicans age 18-29, support for airstrikes is still lower among young Republicans compared to all Republicans.

In contrast to airstrikes, support for troops on the ground is almost non-existent at 12.4%. 60% of all respondents strongly oppose direct intervention with troops on the ground.

We also asked respondents what they thought was the ultimate outcome of the Iran-Israel conflict for the US, along with what they think the outcome of a future US intervention would be:

9. In your opinion, which of the following best describes the end result of the Iran-Israel War for the United States?
Results by Party
% All Democrat Independent Republican
A decisive victory 17.5% 1.9% 13.3% 33.9%
A moderate victory 23.0% 12.7% 22.7% 32.1%
A strategic stalemate, neither victory nor defeat 47.3% 66.3% 50.2% 29.7%
A moderate defeat 3.4% 6.0% 3.9% 0.9%
A decisive defeat 2.0% 4.1% 1.3% 0.6%
I don’t know 6.7% 9.0% 8.6% 2.8%
18-29
% All Democrat Independent Republican
A decisive victory 5.8% 1.9% 5.0% 13.5%
A moderate victory 18.8% 5.7% 25.0% 32.4%
A strategic stalemate, neither victory nor defeat 55.8% 66.0% 52.5% 43.2%
A moderate defeat 1.4% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0%
A decisive defeat 1.4% 1.9% 2.5% 0.0%
I don’t know 16.7% 24.5% 10.0% 10.8%
10. If the US were to directly intervene again in the Israel-Hamas War or a related conflict such as the Iran-Israel War, which of the following best describes what you think the ultimate end result for the United States would be?
Results by Party
% All Democrat Independent Republican
A decisive victory 23.6% 4.9% 20.6% 41.6%
A moderate victory 21.7% 18.0% 20.2% 26.3%
A strategic stalemate, neither victory nor defeat 30.7% 40.8% 31.3% 21.7%
A moderate defeat 7.7% 13.5% 7.7% 3.1%
A decisive defeat 5.4% 9.4% 5.6% 1.8%
I don’t know 10.9% 13.5% 14.6% 5.5%
18-29
% All Democrat Independent Republican
A decisive victory 15.2% 3.8% 22.5% 21.6%
A moderate victory 24.6% 15.1% 20.0% 45.9%
A strategic stalemate, neither victory nor defeat 30.4% 37.7% 30.0% 21.6%
A moderate defeat 9.4% 15.1% 2.5% 8.1%
A decisive defeat 4.3% 7.5% 5.0% 0.0%
I don’t know 15.9% 20.8% 20.0% 2.7%

4.     The Draft

As in our January 2024 poll, we asked respondents how they would respond to a draft:

11. If the United States were to institute a draft, which of the following best describes what you are likely to do (click all that apply):
Results by Party
% Democrat Independent Republican
I would strongly support it 5.1% 0.4% 2.8% 6.7%
I would somewhat support it 9.4% 2.2% 4.4% 11.4%
I would have no real opinion either way 8.4% 2.2% 2.1% 11.4%
I would oppose it, but still comply if drafted 15.5% 4.5% 7.2% 17.2%
I would oppose it through making myself ineligible, or I am already ineligible 35.9% 21.0% 23.3% 16.9%
I would oppose it through draft dodging 5.4% 2.9% 3.9% 2.3%
I would oppose it through malingering 3.1% 2.0% 2.3% 1.2%
I would oppose it through political action such as voting and writing elected officials, etc. 34.2% 26.4% 18.2% 12.5%
I would oppose it through peaceful protest 28.0% 23.9% 15.7% 6.3%
I would oppose it through non-violent civil disobedience 16.2% 11.9% 9.2% 5.6%
I don’t know 6.0% 0.9% 5.1% 5.6%
18-29
% Democrat Independent Republican
I would strongly support it 1.4% 0.0% 1.1% 1.9%
I would somewhat support it 5.1% 0.0% 2.2% 9.3%
I would have no real opinion either way 10.9% 1.4% 4.3% 14.8%
I would oppose it, but still comply if drafted 18.8% 4.3% 5.4% 27.8%
I would oppose it through making myself ineligible, or I am already ineligible 50.7% 26.6% 21.7% 13.0%
I would oppose it through draft dodging 10.1% 4.3% 5.4% 1.9%
I would oppose it through malingering 5.1% 2.2% 3.3% 1.9%
I would oppose it through political action such as voting and writing elected officials, etc. 40.6% 23.0% 17.4% 7.4%
I would oppose it through peaceful protest 43.5% 25.2% 18.5% 7.4%
I would oppose it through non-violent civil disobedience 22.5% 11.5% 12.0% 3.7%
I don’t know 3.6% 0.7% 3.3% 1.9%

Of interest is that the number of respondents age 18-29 who said they would oppose a draft by making themselves ineligible or are already ineligible rose from 38.8% in January, 2024 to 50.7% in this poll. 43.5% of respondents age 18-29 said they would oppose a draft through peaceful protest and 22.5% through non-violent civil disobedience, up from 25.7% and 16.9% respectively in the previous poll.

There was also a moderate increase in respondents of all ages saying they would oppose a draft through political action, peaceful protest, or non-violent civil disobedience from the previous poll.

As in the January 2024 poll, we also asked respondents if they thought instituting a draft would be feasible. The results were within the margin of error for all respondents, with a mild dip among respondents age 18-29 who answered “absolutely yes” and “probably yes.”

12. Do you think that instituting a draft in the United States is feasible?
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
Absolutely yes 6.8% 3.7% 9.9% 7.3%
Probably yes 16.5% 18.7% 13.3% 17.7%
Maybe 19.2% 17.6% 17.6% 22.3%
Probably not 33.6% 33.3% 30.5% 36.1%
Absolutely not 21.1% 24.7% 24.5% 14.7%
I don’t know 2.6% 1.9% 4.3% 1.8%
18-29
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
Absolutely yes 3.6% 1.9% 7.5% 2.7%
Probably yes 12.3% 13.2% 10.0% 16.2%
Maybe 23.2% 15.1% 17.5% 43.2%
Probably not 32.6% 34.0% 35.0% 27.0%
Absolutely not 26.1% 35.8% 25.0% 10.8%
I don’t know 2.2% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0%

5.     Intervention in General

Finally, we repeated our questions about whether foreign intervention is a net positive or negative in regards to the interests of both the American people and foreign peoples:

13. In regards to the interests of the American people, do you think that intervention in foreign countries by the United States government is generally:
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
A major net positive 4.4% 1.5% 2.6% 8.3%
A minor net positive 12.9% 9.0% 11.2% 18.0%
About equally positive and negative 25.3% 24.7% 25.3% 26.3%
A minor net negative 25.7% 27.0% 25.3% 26.0%
A major net negative 29.9% 36.3% 32.2% 20.8%
I don’t know 1.9% 1.5% 3.4% 0.6%
18-29
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
A major net positive 2.9% 0.0% 2.5% 8.1%
A minor net positive 8.7% 5.7% 7.5% 16.2%
About equally positive and negative 18.8% 15.1% 25.0% 18.9%
A minor net negative 34.8% 32.1% 37.5% 40.5%
A major net negative 30.4% 43.4% 20.0% 16.2%
I don’t know 4.3% 3.8% 7.5% 0.0%
14. In regards to the interests of foreign peoples, do you think that intervention in foreign countries by the United States government is generally:
Results by Party
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
A major net positive 11.9% 6.9% 9.0% 18.9%
A minor net positive 19.1% 13.9% 20.4% 25.1%
About equally positive and negative 25.7% 26.6% 28.5% 25.1%
A minor net negative 16.6% 22.4% 14.5% 15.5%
A major net negative 23.6% 30.1% 27.6% 15.5%
I don’t know 3.0% 3.1% 5.4% 1.2%
Total
18-29
% All Democrats Independents Republicans
A major net positive 8.7% 2.0% 15.8% 11.4%
A minor net positive 21.7% 16.0% 23.7% 37.1%
About equally positive and negative 22.5% 20.0% 34.2% 17.1%
A minor net negative 21.0% 30.0% 10.5% 28.6%
A major net negative 21.0% 32.0% 15.8% 5.7%
I don’t know 5.1% 6.0% 5.3% 5.7%

The results were generally within the margin of error compared to the January 2024 poll. As of now, the 17.3% of respondents who see foreign intervention as a net positive for the American people are decisively outnumbered by the 55.6% who see it as a net negative. Among respondents age 18-29, those numbers are 11.6% and 65.2% respectively.

The number of respondents who see foreign intervention as a net positive for foreign peoples are outnumbered for those who see it as a net negative for foreign peoples.

6.     Conclusion