January 3rd, 2024

New Nations: The Republic of Texas

A recent poll by the Homeland Institute of white American voters found that support for a national divorce was still relatively low. Only 25.4% of all respondents and 32.2% of Republican respondents agreed at least a little with the concept of a national divorce.[1]

Part of this was undoubtedly because while respondents were pessimistic about partisan gridlock, political violence, and polarization, they were also pessimistic about whether a national divorce would ameliorate these issues. These findings were buttressed by an Axios poll which also found that respondents were pessimistic about whether a national divorce would ameliorate a number of other issues.[2]

But what if relatively low support for a national divorce can also be explained in part by an inability to envision creative solutions?

The Homeland Institute is therefore launching a series of case studies called New Nations, in which we will envision in concrete terms what several states or collections of states would look like as their own independent nations. We hope this will spark creative thinking and dispel arguments that secession is impractical.

We will begin with Texas, as they already have a robust independence movement (TNM, or Texas Nationalist Movement).[3]

Texas was already an independent country from 1836-1846.

What would the Republic of Texas look like?

Texas is 268,596 square miles in size, with a population of 30.5 million and a GDP of $2.356 trillion. In a ranking of 195 recognized sovereign states, an independent Texas would rank:

39^th place in size. For comparison, Afghanistan would be 41^st in size, and Turkey is 31^st in size.[4]
49^th place in population. For comparison, Venezuela would be at 52^nd place and Saudi Arabia is 46^th in size.[5]
8^th place in GDP, between France at 7^th place and Italy at 9^th.[6]

After an independent Texas, the US would still rank at 4^th in size, 3^rd in population, and even 1^st in GDP despite losing 9.2% of its GDP.

There is an issue of how Texas’s departure would affect the balance of power in the electoral college and Congress. Currently, Texas has 40 out of 538 winner-take-all electoral college votes which are reliably Republican. Texas provides two reliably Republican senators. Of Texas’s 38 congressional representatives, 25 are currently Republican and are 13 are Democrats.

Losing Texas would undeniably be a huge blow to conservatives across America. But as will be discussed latter, changing demographics would mean that Republicans wouldn’t just lose 40 electoral college votes sooner or later, they would have to contend with those 40 votes flipping to Democrat. Losing Texas in the electoral college would thereby serve as a much-needed wakeup call about what would have inexorably happened had Texas stayed in the US. This would highlight the grave political implications of replacement migration, and perhaps encourage other states to break off alongside Texas.

Texas’s already large GDP will grow after leaving the Union. For example, TNM cites a study claiming that excessive federal regulations have shrunk Texan pay checks by 75%.[7] That’s a rather bold claim. But even studies with more modest claims show that ever-expanding federal regulations contribute towards the Texan poverty rate and income inequality.[8] Freeing the Texan economy from the shackles of federal overregulation would undoubtedly increase Texas’s already large economy.

As of 2022, Texas was the top exporting state for 21 years in a row. 93% of all exporters are small businesses, which means that Texas is not reliant on a few mega-corps who could pull out to sabotage a national divorce.[9] As of 2017, Texas was the 4^th largest exporting state of agricultural goods. Texas has the most farms of all United States both in terms of number and acreage, along with the most cattle.[10] Texas also produces the most cotton.[11] The Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport is the second largest in the US and 4^th largest in the world.[12] Texas is the top energy producing state, and produces twice as much energy as Florida which is in second place.[13] Texas is the top producer of both crude oil and natural gas, producing 41% of national crude oil production and 25% of national natural gas in 2019, and its oil refineries are 31% of national refining capacity.[14] Texas will clearly be energy and food independent.

This leads into a possible weakness of an independent Texas, which is a reliance on importing fruit and vegetables. Man cannot live on carbs and meat alone. Most of Texas’s fresh produce comes from Mexico. But Texas could easily transform this weakness into a strength. The US as a whole is reliant on imports of fresh produce, especially from Mexico, and 55% of US fresh produce imports from Mexico pass through Texan ports of entry.[15] Thus, any attempts to sanction or blockade Texas would force much of the Mexican produce headed for the eastern US to travel a more circuitous route by land or sea, thereby raising the price. Furthermore, 30% of Texas’s agricultural exports go to Mexico, so continuing trade regardless of if Washington DC approves is in as much the best interests of Mexico as it would be in Texas’s.

TNM has signaled that they are open to a NATO style military pact with the US.[18] If Texas spends the NATO target of 2% its GDP on defense spending, they would have a $32.78 billion annual defense budget. This would make Texas 11th in the world for defense spending. Texas clearly has the warriors and dollars to defend itself, whether that be alongside the US or otherwise.

Demographically, Texas is 39.8% non-Hispanic white, 40.2% Hispanic, 12.8% black, and 6.1% Asian. Control over their own borders would allow Texas to stabilize their demographics. As of now, the federal government’s immigration policy could be better called an invasion policy. For example, the Biden administration has threatened to sue Texas if they try to prosecute people who illegally enter, and federal agents have cut Texan barbed wire to facilitate illegal crossings.[19] Given racial voting preferences, Texas will be permanently transformed from a Republican stronghold to a Democrat stronghold if they remain in the US.[20] This would effectively disenfranchise millions of white and/or Republican voters, who never consented to and even vehemently oppose the federal policy of open borders.

If Texas stays in the US, they face a grim reality of poverty and invasion. In contrast, the Republic of Texas would enjoy a free, bright, secure, and prosperous future as an independent nation.

[1] https://homelandinstitute.org/2023/12/poll-three-part-two-is-national-divorce-a-solution/

[2] https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-11/Axios-Ipsos%20Two%20Americas%20Index%20March%202023%20Topline%20.pdf See Section 14

[3] https://texit.tnm.me/

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_area

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

[7] https://texit.tnm.me/business-commerce-trade/will-the-economy-in-an-independent-texas-be-better/

[8] https://www.mercatus.org/research/policy-briefs/regressive-effects-regulations-texas-0

[9] https://gov.texas.gov/business/page/trade-and-export

[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Texas

[11] Id.

[12] Id.