The number of Independents and Republicans who agree that “globalism failed” outnumber those who disagreed.
A majority of respondents who were “neutral” or “opposed” to tariffs would be more likely to support tariffs if the White House were more clear and consistent.
After a short 5 to 7 minute poll, respondents went from being slightly opposed to tariffs to almost equally supportive of and opposed to tariffs.
81.7% of Republican respondents support tariffs.
By David Zsutty
For decades, the American labor market has suffered from a one-two punch of cheap labor being imported and jobs being exported. Because the labor market is not immune from the iron law of supply and demand, this naturally led to lower wages, longer hours, and worse conditions for American workers.
On April 2, 2025, the White House announced an aggressive policy of reciprocal tariffs to address America’s trade imbalance, thereby sparking a debate on the advantages and disadvantages of tariffs.
What does the public think about tariffs, and what pro-tariff arguments are the most persuasive? To answer these questions, the Homeland Institute polled 727 respondents who are politically and demographically representative of white, non-Hispanic American registered voters between April 21 and May 2, 2025. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.6%.
- Initial Attitudes
Almost all respondents had been paying attention to tariffs at least “some,” with almost two thirds having paid “a lot” or “a whole lot” of attention.
| Q.1 A tariff, also known as an import tax, is a duty imposed by a government on imports of goods and is paid by the importer. | ||||
| How much have you been paying attention to recent news about tariffs? | ||||
| Results by Party | % | % | % | |
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| A whole lot | 27.8% | 41.8% | 23.9% | 19.5% |
| A lot | 38.0% | 34.2% | 39.9% | 39.7% |
| Some | 27.5% | 20.0% | 28.2% | 32.9% |
| A little | 5.8% | 3.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% |
| Very little | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.8% |
Overall, slightly more respondents opposed tariffs at 45.9% than supported tariffs at 39.2%. More independents opposed rather than supported tariffs as well. Vastly more Republicans supported than opposed tariffs. However, the fact that Republicans tended to “support” rather than “strongly support” tariffs while Democrats tended to “strongly oppose” rather than just “oppose” tariffs continues a theme from several previous Homeland polls of Democrats having more emotional intensity than Republicans.
| Q.2 What is your opinion on tariffs? | |||||
| Results by Party | % | % | % | ||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | ||
| Strongly support | 10.3% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 18.8% | |
| Support | 28.9% | 2.7% | 26.3% | 53.4% | |
| Neutral | 13.2% | 3.6% | 17.4% | 17.3% | |
| Oppose | 17.3% | 29.3% | 18.3% | 6.1% | |
| Strongly oppose | 28.6% | 62.7% | 25.8% | 3.2% | |
| I don’t know | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | |
| Attention Paid | % | % | % | % | % |
| A whole lot | A lot | Some | A little | Very Little | |
| Strongly support | 15.3% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Support | 16.3% | 31.9% | 40.0% | 16.7% | 28.6% |
| Neutral | 5.4% | 10.1% | 19.0% | 42.9% | 14.3% |
| Oppose | 14.4% | 16.3% | 20.5% | 26.2% | 0.0% |
| Strongly oppose | 48.0% | 28.6% | 14.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| I don’t know | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 57.1% |
Almost half of respondents said that tariffs are about as important to them as other issues, with the other half split about evenly between rating tariffs as more and less important. That more Democrats tended to rate tariffs as more important than other issues continues the theme of higher emotional intensity.
| Q.3 How important are tariffs to you compared to other issues? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Much more important | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| More important | 21.6% | 29.8% | 19.2% | 17.3% |
| About the same | 47.0% | 40.4% | 47.4% | 52.0% |
| Less important | 20.9% | 16.4% | 21.6% | 23.5% |
| A lot less important | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% |
| I don’t know | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
2. Specific Arguments
To gauge which arguments are the most persuasive, we next exposed respondents to a series of statements and asked them if they strongly agreed, agreed, were neutral, disagreed, strongly disagreed, or didn’t know.
The statements with the highest levels of agreement involved geopolitics, supply chain fragility, supply and demand in the labor market, and the logical stance that if industry can be off-shored, it can be brought back:
| Q.12 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “The Covid-19 pandemic showed that global supply chains are fragile. Reindustrializing America is a matter of national security.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 28.3% | 7.1% | 21.6% | 50.2% |
| Agree | 36.9% | 25.3% | 41.3% | 40.1% |
| Neutral | 14.4% | 20.0% | 17.8% | 6.1% |
| Disagree | 16.6% | 35.1% | 15.0% | 1.8% |
| Strongly disagree | 3.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| I don’t know | 2.4% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Q.11 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “If it is likely that a conflict with China is inevitable, it would be wiser to fight a trade war rather than a hot war because a trade war would be more effective and save lives.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 24.3% | 4.9% | 22.1% | 42.2% |
| Agree | 38.4% | 30.7% | 39.4% | 43.3% |
| Neutral | 17.3% | 27.1% | 17.4% | 10.1% |
| Disagree | 9.5% | 19.1% | 8.9% | 1.8% |
| Strongly disagree | 4.4% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 0.4% |
| I don’t know | 6.1% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 2.2% |
| Q.6 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “If manufacturing can be transferred overseas, it can be transferred back home.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 26.7% | 5.8% | 23.5% | 47.3% |
| Agree | 34.9% | 19.6% | 39.0% | 44.0% |
| Neutral | 10.5% | 16.0% | 11.7% | 4.7% |
| Disagree | 19.5% | 42.2% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| Strongly disagree | 6.3% | 13.3% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| I don’t know | 2.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% |
| Q.4 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “It is better to suffer short-term economic pain for long-term economic gain.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 19.5% | 0.9% | 22.1% | 33.6% |
| Agree | 39.2% | 18.7% | 41.3% | 54.9% |
| Neutral | 15.8% | 22.7% | 16.9% | 9.0% |
| Disagree | 15.4% | 36.4% | 11.3% | 1.4% |
| Strongly disagree | 8.5% | 18.7% | 7.5% | 0.7% |
| I don’t know | 1.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Q.10 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “China is a geopolitical rival. Offshoring American manufacturing to China, and to Taiwan which is threatened by China, was a mistake. Reindustrializing America is a matter of national security.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 23.9% | 3.1% | 21.6% | 43.7% |
| Agree | 32.5% | 18.2% | 35.7% | 42.2% |
| Neutral | 15.3% | 23.1% | 16.0% | 7.6% |
| Disagree | 18.4% | 39.6% | 16.9% | 2.2% |
| Strongly disagree | 5.5% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 0.4% |
| I don’t know | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% |
| Q.7 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “The law of supply and demand applies to the labor market too. If tariffs incentivize businesses to bring manufacturing jobs home, American workers will be paid more and treated better.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 16.6% | 0.0% | 13.6% | 33.2% |
| Agree | 33.6% | 10.2% | 33.8% | 52.3% |
| Neutral | 12.2% | 11.1% | 16.4% | 10.1% |
| Disagree | 20.6% | 41.3% | 22.1% | 2.5% |
| Strongly disagree | 14.7% | 34.2% | 12.7% | 0.0% |
| I don’t know | 2.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% |
| Q.8 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “Influencing the labor market to favor employees over employers is a more fair and efficient way to redistribute wealth than taxes, spending, regulations, or welfare programs.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 14.4% | 11.1% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| Agree | 35.1% | 24.9% | 34.7% | 43.0% |
| Neutral | 23.0% | 21.8% | 23.0% | 24.9% |
| Disagree | 15.3% | 23.1% | 14.1% | 10.1% |
| Strongly disagree | 5.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| I don’t know | 6.3% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
65.2% of respondents were in some form of agreement that reindustrializing America is a matter of national security because Covid showed that supply chains are fragile. 62.7% agreed that a trade war with China would be preferable to a hot war. 61.6% agreed that if manufacturing can be transferred overseas, it can be transferred back home. 58.7% agreed that it is better to suffer short-term economic pain for long-term gain. 56.4% agreed that offshoring manufacturing to China and Taiwan is a natural security issue given that China is a geopolitical rival. And finally, 50.2% agreed that bringing jobs home will help American workers due to supply and demand while 49.5% agreed with the related statement that influencing the labor market to be pro-employee would be a better way to redistribute wealth.
Statements which had moderate levels of agreement involved casting tariffs as a better way to raise revenue than the income tax, a desire for clarity on tariff policy, and globalism.
| Q.9 The IRS estimates that the US loses $190 billion due to underreporting and underpayment of taxes each year, amounting to about 2.7% of the federal budget. | ||||
| In 2019, the IRS Commissioner sent a letter in response to a congressional inquiry about IRS audit practices. That letter suggests that the IRS prioritizes low-income audits partly because poorer taxpayers are less likely to have legal representation to contest audits. | ||||
| Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “The government must collect revenue somehow. Tariffs would be a more fair and efficient way to raise revenue than the federal income tax.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 18.7% | 0.9% | 15.5% | 36.5% |
| Agree | 27.0% | 6.2% | 28.2% | 42.6% |
| Neutral | 12.1% | 9.8% | 17.8% | 10.1% |
| Disagree | 19.7% | 35.1% | 18.3% | 8.3% |
| Strongly disagree | 19.5% | 44.0% | 16.9% | 1.1% |
| I don’t know | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Q.16 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “I would be more likely to support tariffs if the White House was more clear and consistent on what their tariff policy would be.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 10.9% | 5.8% | 12.7% | 14.1% |
| Agree | 34.7% | 36.0% | 36.6% | 32.5% |
| Neutral | 28.7% | 20.0% | 31.5% | 33.9% |
| Disagree | 17.6% | 25.8% | 11.7% | 14.4% |
| Strongly disagree | 7.0% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| I don’t know | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Q.5 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “Globalism and open borders have enriched some Americans at the expense of other Americans. It is only fair that this unjust enrichment is reversed.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 16.9% | 4.9% | 16.9% | 27.4% |
| Agree | 27.2% | 11.6% | 28.2% | 39.7% |
| Neutral | 19.0% | 16.9% | 22.1% | 18.4% |
| Disagree | 19.1% | 31.6% | 18.8% | 8.7% |
| Strongly disagree | 12.1% | 27.1% | 8.0% | 2.5% |
| I don’t know | 5.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% |
| Q.17 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “Globalism failed.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 15.7% | 3.0% | 15.6% | 30.4% |
| Agree | 20.4% | 8.9% | 25.0% | 32.0% |
| Neutral | 20.2% | 16.3% | 27.1% | 24.1% |
| Disagree | 21.6% | 40.6% | 20.8% | 12.3% |
| Strongly disagree | 12.4% | 31.2% | 11.5% | 1.2% |
| I don’t know | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 9.5% |
45.7% of respondents were in some form of agreement that tariffs are a more fair and efficient way to raise revenue than taxes due to tax evasion and unfair IRS practices. 45.6% of all respondents agreed that they would be more likely to support tariffs if the White House was more clear and consistent on their tariff policy. A significant number of Democrats and Independents also agreed. This suggests that “Art of the Deal” style negotiating tactics do not translate well from business into politics.
44.1% agreed that globalism has unjustly enriched some at the expense of others, and that this should be reversed, while 36.1% agreed that “globalism failed” with more Independents and Republicans agreeing rather than disagreeing that globalism failed.
Statements which had low levels of agreement involved disregard for Wall Street after the Covid lockdowns devastated Main Street, and leveraging tariffs to pressure other governments to respect their citizens’ rights and Russia to end the Ukraine war.
| Q.13 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “Since Wall Street didn’t care about how the Covid-19 lockdowns hurt Main Street, Main Street shouldn’t care if tariffs hurt Wall Street.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 11.3% | 3.6% | 11.3% | 17.7% |
| Agree | 17.2% | 10.7% | 18.3% | 22.0% |
| Neutral | 24.6% | 12.9% | 27.2% | 31.4% |
| Disagree | 27.4% | 42.2% | 23.5% | 18.4% |
| Strongly disagree | 13.1% | 24.4% | 11.3% | 5.4% |
| I don’t know | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 5.1% |
| Q.15 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “Tariffs are an opportunity to pressure Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 5.1% | 1.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| Agree | 15.7% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 24.5% |
| Neutral | 19.1% | 8.0% | 22.5% | 26.4% |
| Disagree | 33.6% | 39.1% | 32.9% | 29.6% |
| Strongly disagree | 21.6% | 38.7% | 22.1% | 7.6% |
| I don’t know | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% |
| Q.14 Which of the following best describes your opinion of this statement: | ||||
| “Tariffs are an opportunity to pressure foreign governments to respect their citizens’ right to free speech, run for office, and politically organize.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 4.5% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 8.7% |
| Agree | 14.3% | 5.8% | 11.3% | 23.8% |
| Neutral | 23.1% | 7.6% | 28.2% | 31.4% |
| Disagree | 31.9% | 39.1% | 34.7% | 24.2% |
| Strongly disagree | 20.8% | 42.2% | 17.8% | 5.4% |
| I don’t know | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% |
However, that these statements had low agreement does not mean that tariffs are not a way to pressure Leftist governments to refrain from censorship, anarcho-tyranny, and banning parties and candidates. For example, on May 2, Germany declared the AfD to be an “extremist organization” despite the fact that it is now polling as the top party at 26%.
3. Changes in Attitude
We concluded by asking respondents if their opinions on tariffs had changed since taking the poll:
| Q.18 After taking this poll, what is your opinion on tariffs? | ||||
| Results by Party | % | % | % | |
| % All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 12.9% | 0.0% | 11.8% | 25.3% |
| Support | 30.9% | 5.0% | 28.4% | 56.4% |
| Neutral | 11.0% | 4.1% | 19.0% | 9.2% |
| Oppose | 20.5% | 38.2% | 20.4% | 7.0% |
| Strongly oppose | 23.0% | 52.7% | 20.4% | 2.2% |
| I don’t know | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% |
43.8% of respondents ended up supporting tariffs, versus 39.2% at the start of the poll, for an increase of 4.6%. 43.5% remained opposed to tariffs, versus 45.9% at the start. Additionally, more respondents strongly opposed than strongly supported tariffs.
For years, vast sums have been spent on trying to persuade conservatives about the virtues of free trade. That 81.7% of Republicans support tariffs shows that those efforts have failed. Furthermore, that many Democrats oppose tariffs may have little to do with actually supporting free trade and more to do with partisanship and related issues. However, that is a topic which requires further research.
But perhaps most important for policy makers, respondents who were “neutral” or “opposed” to tariffs at the end of the poll were in highest agreement with the statement “I would be more likely to support tariffs if the White House was more clear and consistent on what their tariff policy would be.” Of those respondents who ended up being neutral on tariffs at the end of the poll, 13.8% strongly agreed and 47.5% agreed for a total of 61.3% that they would be more likely to support tariffs if White House tariff policy was more clear and consistent. For respondents “opposed” to tariffs, those numbers were 10.7%, 44.3%, and 55% respectively.
4. Key Takeaways
• Respondents went from being slightly opposed to tariffs to almost equally supportive of and opposed to tariffs after a short 5 to 7 minute poll.
• Opposition to tariffs is more emotionally intense than support for tariffs.
• The strongest pro-tariff arguments are supply chain vulnerability, geopolitics, improving the labor market, and the common-sense stance that if industry can be off-shored it can be re-shored.
• Decent pro-tariff arguments are casting tariffs as a more fair and efficient method of raising revenue than the income tax, and opposing globalism on the grounds that it has failed and unjustly enriched some at the expense of others.
• The White House trading “Art of the Deal” negotiating tactics for a clear and consistent tariff policy would likely increase support for tariffs, especially among those who are neutral or slightly opposed to tariffs.
• Weaker pro-tariff arguments are antagonism between Wall Street and Main Street and using tariffs as a tool of foreign policy. However, this does not mean that policy makers should disregard tariffs as a viable tool for encouraging foreign governments to respect their citizens’ rights.
• That 81.7% of Republicans support tariffs shows that efforts to laud free trade have failed.