57.2% of Republicans, 30.1% of Independents, and 33% of all respondents want America to be 60% white like in 2018, or even whiter.
43.7% of Republicans and 22.2% of Independents would support or strongly support a candidate who promised to change immigration policy with the goal of eventually reaching an 80% white supermajority.
58.4% of Republicans and 29.7% of Independents would at least somewhat agree with a political candidate who proposed policies to preserve the white majority, up from 50.7% and 27.6% in November, 2024.
57.4% of Republicans and 33.4% of Independents strongly or somewhat agree that changing demographics pose a threat to white Americans and their culture and values, up from 51.8% and 24.5% in 2024.
7% of white Republicans answered that preserving the white majority was the most important political issue for them, 20.8% very important, and 27.8% somewhat important, up from 3.4%, 18.9%, and 22.9% in 2024.
By David Zsutty
The Homeland Institute has done a new poll on the Great Replacement, which is the subject of two earlier polls, in September of 2023, and again in November, 2024. We repeated several previous questions to track changes in public opinion on the issue, along with asking several new questions.
We polled 880 respondents who are politically and demographically representative of white, non-Hispanic American registered voters between June 27 and July 7, 2026. The margin of error was plus or minus 3%.
As in previous polls, we explained that the Great Replacement theory is the claim that political elites around the world are intentionally replacing whites with non-whites. In the November 2024 poll, 45.3% of Republicans fully agreed with the Great Replacement theory, while another 23.8% agreed that whites are being replaced, albeit unintentionally, for a total of 69.1%.
This year, 49.5% of Republicans fully agreed that whites are being intentionally replaced, while another 24.5% believe they are being unintentionally replaced, for a total of 74%. The largest change was among a shift from Independents thinking that whites are being replaced unintentionally to intentionally. Now, 27.8% of Independents fully agree with the Great Replacement theory, up from 19.9% in 2024.
| Q.2 Proponents of the Great Replacement theory claim that political elites around the world are intentionally replacing whites with non-whites. Which of the following best describes your opinion on this theory? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| I disagree that whites are being replaced | 51.3% | 81.9% | 50.8% | 26.0% |
| I agree that whites are being replaced, but I think this is unintentional | 20.7% | 15.1% | 21.4% | 24.5% |
| I agree that whites are being replaced and that this is intentional | 28.1% | 3.0% | 27.8% | 49.5% |
There was also a decrease in the number of respondents age 18-29 who had not heard of the Great Replacement until polled.
| Q.4 When did you first hear about the Great Replacement theory? | ||||
| 18-29 | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| I have not heard of the Great Replacement until now | 47.6% | 56.5% | 46.4% | 42.5% |
| I have heard of the Great Replacement but I don’t know when | 12.2% | 15.2% | 10.7% | 12.5% |
| I first heard of the Great Replacement within the last two years | 12.9% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 10.0% |
| I first heard of the Great Replacement within the last five years | 13.6% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 25.0% |
| I first heard of the Great Replacement within the last ten years | 13.6% | 6.5% | 17.9% | 10.0% |
| Respondents of All Ages | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| I have not heard of the Great Replacement until now | 46.6% | 44.3% | 45.5% | 50.5% |
| I have heard of the Great Replacement but I don’t know when | 11.1% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 10.7% |
| I first heard of the Great Replacement within the last two years | 11.6% | 12.9% | 9.0% | 12.2% |
| I first heard of the Great Replacement within the last five years | 16.5% | 15.9% | 18.8% | 15.6% |
| I first heard of the Great Replacement within the last ten years | 14.2% | 14.0% | 17.3% | 11.0% |
Among respondents of all ages there was scarcely any change from the 2024 poll in awareness about the Great Replacement. This suggests that dominating online discourse may educate the youth but not the wider electorate.
We also repeated a question which framed the Great Replacement in terms of electoral politics instead of race. Like in 2024, this framing elicited higher agreement:
| Q.3 The Pew Research Center found that substantially more immigrants tend to identify as or lean Democrat than Republican. This includes legal immigrants. | ||||
| Agree or disagree: Progressive and liberal leaders favor immigration because they are trying to increase their political power by replacing conservative voters with liberal voters. | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| Strongly disagree | 23.3% | 54.2% | 19.2% | 0.9% |
| Slightly disagree | 14.1% | 24.4% | 16.9% | 3.4% |
| I don’t know | 9.2% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 5.5% |
| Slightly agree | 18.4% | 9.6% | 21.4% | 22.6% |
| Strongly agree | 35.0% | 1.5% | 30.5% | 67.6% |
We also asked where respondents where learning about the Great Replacement:
| Q.5 How did you become familiar with the Great Replacement theory? (You can choose more than one option) | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| I am unfamiliar with the Great Replacement theory | 48.9% | 50.0% | 45.6% | 51.7% |
| Sources attempting to counter the Great Replacement narrative | 15.0% | 20.9% | 17.8% | 7.9% |
| Fox News | 8.1% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 10.7% |
| Tucker Carlson | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% |
| X, formerly known as Twitter | 14.4% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 17.0% |
| Facebook or Instagram | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% |
| Online discussion, such as Discord servers, multiplayer video games, 4-chan, or forums | 12.5% | 12.6% | 14.8% | 10.1% |
| Friends or family | 11.4% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 13.9% |
| “Alt-Right” groups or sources | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Alternative news sources | 12.8% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 14.8% |
| Other | 13.3% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 12.3% |
| 18-29 | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| I am unfamiliar with the Great Replacement theory | 52.1% | 61.4% | 49.1% | 50.0% |
| Sources attempting to counter the Great Replacement narrative | 16.0% | 20.5% | 21.1% | 5.3% |
| Fox News | 3.5% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| X, formerly known as Twitter | 17.4% | 11.4% | 17.5% | 23.7% |
| Facebook or Instagram | 8.3% | 4.5% | 8.8% | 13.2% |
| Online discussion, such as Discord servers, multiplayer video games, 4-chan, or forums | 16.0% | 9.1% | 19.3% | 18.4% |
| Friends or family | 13.2% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 18.4% |
| “Alt-Right” groups or sources | 6.3% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% |
| Alternative news sources | 9.7% | 2.3% | 14.0% | 13.2% |
| Other | 9.0% | 4.5% | 8.8% | 13.2% |
And also what respondents think is driving it:
| Q.6 If you believe in the Great Replacement theory, what do you think is driving it? (You can choose more than one option) | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| I don’t believe in the Great Replacement theory | 47.4% | 86.5% | 42.1% | 24.9% |
| Concern about environmental issues | 1.5% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| Legal and or illegal immigration | 23.6% | 3.8% | 22.9% | 37.9% |
| Low white birthrates | 13.2% | 5.6% | 13.8% | 17.7% |
| Feminism, birth control, and abortion | 8.9% | 1.1% | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| Increasing difficulty in forming and preserving marriages | 5.5% | 2.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% |
| Materialism and or consumerism among whites | 3.7% | 1.5% | 5.7% | 3.4% |
| Nihilism and or loss of religiosity among whites | 6.2% | 1.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% |
| Rising cost of living and or low wages | 7.4% | 2.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% |
| All of the above | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% |
| None of the above | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 9.6% |
We also re-asked a question which was originally from the SPLC:
| Q.7 Do you feel the changing demographics of America pose a threat to white Americans and their culture and values, or not? (IF YES) Do you feel that way strongly, somewhat, or only a little? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| No | 48.2% | 85.2% | 50.8% | 15.6% |
| I don’t know | 7.8% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 11.6% |
| Yes, only a little | 11.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 15.3% |
| Yes, somewhat | 18.9% | 1.8% | 18.0% | 33.9% |
| Yes, strongly | 13.9% | 1.1% | 15.4% | 23.5% |
There was an increase among Republicans and Independents who answered “Yes, somewhat” or “Yes, strongly” from November, 2024. Now, 57.4% of Republicans and 33.4% of Independents strongly or somewhat agree that changing demographics pose a threat to white Americans and their culture and values, up from 51.8% and 24.5% in November, 2024.
We also asked if respondents would support a candidate who proposed immigration policies to preserve the white majority in America:
| Q.8 If a political candidate proposed immigration policies to preserve the white majority in America, would you: | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| Strongly disagree | 35.8% | 73.8% | 32.3% | 6.4% |
| Somewhat disagree | 14.2% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 13.8% |
| Not care | 11.0% | 6.3% | 12.4% | 13.8% |
| Somewhat agree | 17.2% | 3.0% | 17.3% | 29.7% |
| Strongly agree | 15.1% | 1.5% | 12.4% | 28.7% |
| I don’t know | 6.7% | 1.8% | 10.5% | 7.6% |
58.4% of Republicans and 29.7% of Independents would at least somewhat agree with a political candidate who proposed policies to preserve the white majority, up from 50.7% and 27.6% in 2024.
We next asked if respondents support preserving the white majority in America, and if so how important of an issue it was to them:
| Q.9 If you support preserving the white majority in America, how important of a political issue is it to you? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| The most important | 3.8% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 7.0% |
| Very important | 11.4% | 0.7% | 10.9% | 20.8% |
| Somewhat important | 16.0% | 4.4% | 13.2% | 27.8% |
| I don’t know | 6.9% | 2.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% |
| I neither support not oppose preserving the white majority in America | 34.0% | 34.3% | 37.6% | 30.6% |
| I oppose preserving the white majority in America | 28.0% | 57.6% | 26.7% | 4.3% |
7% of white Republicans answered that preserving the white majority was the most important political issue for them, 20.8% very important, and 27.8% somewhat important, up from 3.4%, 18.9%, and 22.9% in 2024.
We also asked how important opposing preserving the white majority was:
| Q.10 If you oppose preserving the white majority in America, how important of a political issue is it to you? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| The most important | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Very important | 10.5% | 18.8% | 11.7% | 3.1% |
| Somewhat important | 16.9% | 29.5% | 10.9% | 11.0% |
| I don’t know | 11.1% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 10.7% |
| I neither support not oppose preserving the white majority in America | 37.3% | 37.6% | 41.7% | 33.3% |
| I support preserving the white majority in America | 22.8% | 2.2% | 21.1% | 41.6% |
The “celebration parallax” is common in Leftist discourse on the Great Replacement, where the Great Replacement exists if it is celebrated as a good thing (or increasingly, as revenge) but is denied when it is criticized as a bad thing. Thus, we tested whether informing respondents that Mark Potok of the SPLC tracks the declining white population would change their minds:
| Q.12 In the 2018 documentary Alt-Right: Age of Rage, Mark Potok of the SPLC was filmed keeping a chart on his home’s doorframe tracking the declining white population of the US by year. | ||||
| After learning about this fact, which of the following best describes your opinion on the Great Replacement theory? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| I disagree that whites are being replaced | 44.5% | 74.5% | 42.9% | 20.8% |
| I agree that whites are being replaced, but I think this is unintentional | 26.7% | 23.2% | 28.9% | 27.5% |
| I agree that whites are being replaced and that this is intentional | 28.8% | 2.2% | 28.2% | 51.7% |
While this did decrease the number of respondents who denied that whites were being replaced, most of the resulting increase was seen in thinking that whites are being unintentionally replaced.
It is a common misconception that America was always highly diverse. Thus, we asked respondents if they would like the white population of America to return to a certain percentage as it was in a specific year:
| Q.13 America is currently 56% white. But as Mark Potok’s chart shows, that was not always the case. | ||||
| Would you like to see America’s racial demographics gradually return to what they were through a mix of voluntary and involuntary remigration? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| 85% white or higher like in 1960 | 10.5% | 0.7% | 10.5% | 18.3% |
| 80% white like in 1980 | 4.5% | 0.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% |
| 75% white like in 1990 | 5.6% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 11.0% |
| 70% white like in 2000 | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 10.7% |
| 65% white like in about 2008 | 3.1% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 6.1% |
| 60% white like in about 2018 | 2.8% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% |
| About what it is now | 16.3% | 21.8% | 17.3% | 11.6% |
| Neutral or undecided | 42.3% | 52.4% | 44.4% | 30.9% |
| I want America to be less white | 8.5% | 18.8% | 8.3% | 0.3% |
25.3% of Republicans, 16.1% of Independents, and 15% of all respondents want America to be 80% white like in 1980, or even whiter.
57.2% of Republicans, 30.1% of Independents, and 33% of all respondents want America to be 60% white like in 2018, or even whiter.
Interestingly, the question stated it would be accomplished through a mix of voluntary and involuntary remigration.
Perhaps most important was the stark drop from the 28% of all respondents and 57.6% of Democrats who answered “I oppose preserving the white majority in America” in Question 9 to only 8.5% of all respondents and only 18.8% of Democrats saying “I want America to be less white.” This drop may not be wholly explainable by different questions and answers, and thus merits further study.
Next, we asked whether respondents would actually support a candidate who championed their policy preferences:
| Q.15 Which of the following best describes what your opinion of a presidential candidate would be if he or she promised to change US immigration law with the goal of eventually reaching an 80% white super majority? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| Strongly Support | 11.6% | 0.4% | 10.2% | 22.3% |
| Support | 12.2% | 1.8% | 12.0% | 21.4% |
| Neutral | 16.8% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 26.0% |
| Oppose | 18.5% | 18.8% | 23.7% | 14.1% |
| Strongly Oppose | 35.1% | 68.3% | 33.1% | 8.3% |
| I don’t know | 5.8% | 2.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% |
43.7% of Republicans and 22.2% of Independents would support or strongly support a candidate who promised to change immigration policy with the goal of eventually reaching an 80% white supermajority.
Supporters of migration often paint it as a one directional flow which would be possible to reverse. However, we found widespread agreement with the common-sense position that “Planes, trains, ships, and buses go both directions. If large numbers of legal and illegal immigrants rapidly entered America recently, they can be gradually repatriated to their homelands, with a focus on the most recent and/or problematic ones first.”
| Q.14 Which of the following best describes your opinion on the following statement: | ||||
| “Planes, trains, ships, and buses go both directions. If large numbers of legal and illegal immigrants rapidly entered America recently, they can be gradually repatriated to their homelands, with a focus on the most recent and/or problematic ones first.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrat | Independent | Republican | |
| Strongly disagree | 17.8% | 39.5% | 14.3% | 1.8% |
| Somewhat disagree | 13.2% | 21.0% | 15.4% | 4.9% |
| Not care | 8.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 4.9% |
| Somewhat agree | 23.5% | 13.3% | 27.4% | 28.7% |
| Strongly agree | 28.4% | 3.0% | 23.3% | 54.7% |
| I don’t know | 8.4% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% |
Conclusion
- There has been a slight increase in the number who believe in the Great Replacement since November, 2024.
- 2% of Republicans, 30.1% of Independents, and 33% of all respondents want America to be 80% white like in 2018, or even whiter.
- 7% of Republicans and 22.2% of Independents would support or strongly support a candidate who promised to change immigration policy with the goal of eventually reaching an 80% white supermajority.
- 4% of Republicans and 29.7% of Independents would at least somewhat agree with a political candidate who proposed policies to preserve the white majority, up from 50.7% and 27.6% in 2024.
- 4% of Republicans and 33.4% of Independents strongly or somewhat agree that changing demographics pose a threat to white Americans and their culture and values, up from 51.8% and 24.5% in November, 2024.
- 7% of white Republicans answered that preserving the white majority was the most important political issue for them, 20.8% very important, and 27.8% somewhat important, up from 3.4%, 18.9%, and 22.9% in 2024.
- Framing the Great Replacement within electoral rather than racial terms lowers resistance to it.
- Dominating online discourse may be an effective way to educate the youth, but less so for the wider electorate.
- Showing the public examples of the “celebration parallax” may be an effective way to educate them on the Great Replacement.
- There is widespread agreement with the common-sense position that “Planes, trains, ships, and buses go both directions. If large numbers of legal and illegal immigrants rapidly entered America recently, they can be gradually repatriated to their homelands, with a focus on the most recent and/or problematic ones first.”