A short poll increased opposition to granting green cards to college graduates by about 10% across party lines.
The fact that US taxpayers directly and indirectly fund foreign students lowered 47.4% of all respondents’ and 51.1% of Republicans’ opinion of granting green cards to college graduates.
The fact that green card recipients could pose a national security risk in a multipolar world lowered 44.4% of respondents’ opinion of granting green cards to college graduates.
The fact that granting more green cards would change America’s racial demographics lowered 23.7% of all respondents’, 36.7% of Republicans’, 20.5% of Independents’, and even 10.6% of Democrats’ opinion of granting green cards to college graduates.
Trump’s proposal failed to change how respondents plan to vote.
On June 20, 2024, Donald Trump appeared on the All-In podcast. After being prompted, Trump promised to grant green cards to college graduates starting on day one if he is re-elected. Specifically,
“You graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically, as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country. And that includes junior colleges too. Anybody graduates from a college — you go in there for two years or four years. If you graduate, or you get a doctorate degree from a college, you should be able to stay in this country.”[1]
Trump’s green card proposal is a symptom of how there is a stark divide in the public mind between legal and illegal immigration, as was revealed in our previous poll on immigration and repatriation. Widespread opposition to illegal immigration does not translate over into opposition to legal immigration. And, as explained by Executive Director David Zsutty, this must change because legal immigration is actually more deleterious than illegal immigration.
Because passing out green cards to anyone who can obtain even a two-year degree would be a catastrophe, we explored support for Trump’s green card proposal along with what arguments for and against it resonate best with the public. We polled 1,126 respondents who are characteristic of registered white American voters. This poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3% and was conducted from June 24 through July 1, 2024.[2]
To establish a baseline we briefly introduced Trump’s green card proposal and asked respondents their opinion on it, and if it affected how they would vote.
Q.1 In June 2024, Donald Trump proposed granting a green card to anyone who graduates from a college in the US, including two-year junior colleges. Which of the following best describes your opinion on Donald Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
Strongly support | 16.6% | 22.5% | 16.8% | 12.1% |
Slightly support | 32.7% | 30.3% | 33.8% | 32.9% |
Neither support nor oppose | 24.1% | 24.6% | 22.6% | 25.1% |
Slightly oppose | 12.5% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 14.8% |
Strongly oppose | 11.0% | 7.5% | 11.9% | 13.2% |
I don’t know | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
Q.2 Which of the following best describes the effect Donald Trump’s green card proposal has on the likelihood that you will vote for him? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more likely | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 5.0% |
A little more likely | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
No effect either way | 86.8% | 88.9% | 88.4% | 84.0% |
A little less likely | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
A lot less likely | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
I don’t know | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
The results further buttressed the findings of our previous poll on immigration and repatriation that the general public is mostly amenable to legal immigration. Respondents who opposed the green card proposal were well outnumbered by those who supported it, even among Republicans. And while it had little effect on how respondents plan on voting, more respondents said it made them likelier to vote for Trump rather than less likely.
The majority of our poll questions asked respondents to describe how a statement affected their opinion of the green card proposal. We first began with statements which supported the green card proposal in a positive light, followed by statements which opposed it.
Here are the questions with pro-green card statements:
Q.4 Consider the following statement: “The US needs to attract the best and brightest to compete in a multipolar world. Granting immigrants green cards if they graduate college will be a loss for our adversaries and competitors, and a gain for us.” | ||||
Which of the following best describes how this statement affects your opinion of Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more positive | 6.6% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 11.1% |
A little more positive | 31.1% | 22.4% | 34.7% | 34.8% |
No effect either way | 52.7% | 62.1% | 50.9% | 46.6% |
A little more negative | 5.5% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% |
A lot more negative | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% |
I don’t know | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
Q.5 Consider the following statement: “Granting immigrants who graduate college green cards will help boost the GDP which will increase the number of jobs in the long term.” | ||||
Which of the following best describes how this statement affects your opinion of Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more positive | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 9.3% |
A little more positive | 29.0% | 23.1% | 29.6% | 33.2% |
No effect either way | 55.2% | 63.9% | 54.9% | 48.5% |
A little more negative | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% |
A lot more negative | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 2.8% |
I don’t know | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
Q.6 Consider the following statement: “Granting immigrants who graduate college green cards will increase diversity and culturally enrich our society.” | ||||
Which of the following best describes how this statement affects your opinion of Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more positive | 8.8% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 8.6% |
A little more positive | 25.6% | 31.8% | 29.0% | 17.4% |
No effect either way | 49.1% | 48.3% | 50.9% | 49.2% |
A little more negative | 7.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 12.5% |
A lot more negative | 8.6% | 4.3% | 9.1% | 11.8% |
I don’t know | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
Identifying which pro-immigration arguments people respond to best will allow immigration skeptics to prioritize rebutting those arguments.
The statement which garnered the most positive response for the green card proposal was the one about attracting talent in a multipolar world with 37.7% of all respondents and 45.9% of Republicans saying it improved their opinion of it. This statement is almost verbatim language used on the aforementioned All-In podcast, so that it closely resembles arguments which immigration skeptics will have to rebut in real life.
The statement about boosting the GDP was a close second in garnering support with 35.7% of all respondents and 42.5% of Republicans saying it had a positive effect on their opinion of the green card proposal. This reinforces findings from our previous poll on immigration and repatriation that economics and money are high priorities for Republican voters.
34.4% of all respondents, 43.4% of Democrats, 35.4% of Independents, and 26% of Republicans said that the statement about diversity had a positive effect on their opinion. This shows that diversity is a high priority for Democrat voters.
Interestingly, 16.1% of all respondents, 8.1% of Democrats, 13.4% of Independents, and 24.3% of Republicans said this statement lowered their opinion of the green card proposal. This suggests that there is a small but substantial segment of the white electorate which if not quite yet open to white identity politics are at least tired of DEI (diversity equity and inclusion) and “wokeness.”
We then asked about anti-green card statements. Here are the results in order of most to least effective:
Q.8 Consider the following statement: “Many colleges receive tax-payer funds directly from the state and federal governments and indirectly through grants. It’s unfair that US tax-payers fund foreign students when so many Americans have difficulty affording college.” | ||||
Which of the following best describes how this statement affects your opinion of Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more positive | 3.7% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 7.4% |
A little more positive | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% |
No effect either way | 42.7% | 51.7% | 44.8% | 33.9% |
A little more negative | 26.6% | 22.8% | 25.9% | 30.9% |
A lot more negative | 20.8% | 20.8% | 20.7% | 20.2% |
I don’t know | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
Q.9 Consider the following statement: “The US must compete in a multipolar world. Many foreign-born students come from our geopolitical rivals like China to which they have loyalties. Vetting them all may be difficult and costly. Allowing large numbers of foreign-born students into key industries could present a national security risk.” | ||||
Which of the following best describes how this statement affects your opinion of Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more positive | 2.9% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 6.3% |
A little more positive | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 9.7% |
No effect either way | 44.8% | 50.9% | 48.2% | 37.4% |
A little more negative | 26.5% | 26.6% | 23.8% | 27.8% |
A lot more negative | 17.9% | 16.2% | 20.4% | 17.6% |
I don’t know | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
Q.7 Consider the following statement: “There are only a limited number of college seats. It’s unfair that US citizens have to compete with foreign students in a zero-sum game for college seats.” | ||||
Which of the following best describes how this statement affects your opinion of Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more positive | 3.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 6.5% |
A little more positive | 4.6% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% |
No effect either way | 49.8% | 56.4% | 51.2% | 43.2% |
A little more negative | 26.6% | 24.9% | 26.2% | 28.8% |
A lot more negative | 14.3% | 13.9% | 14.6% | 14.2% |
I don’t know | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
Q.11 Consider the following statement: “Unskilled illegal immigrants hurt the US working class. Increasing the number of skilled legal immigrants through Trump’s green card proposal will hurt the middle and professional classes too.” | ||||
Which of the following best describes how this statement affects your opinion of Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more positive | 2.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 3.9% |
A little more positive | 4.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 6.5% |
No effect either way | 55.5% | 63.3% | 59.5% | 47.3% |
A little more negative | 22.6% | 19.7% | 18.6% | 26.7% |
A lot more negative | 13.3% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 14.8% |
I don’t know | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
Q.10 Consider the following statement: “Obtaining a green card makes it easier to obtain US citizenship, and citizens can vote in federal elections. The Pew Research Center found that substantially more immigrants tend to identify as or lean Democrat than Republican.” | ||||
Which of the following best describes how this statement affects your opinion of Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more positive | 3.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
A little more positive | 12.3% | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.4% |
No effect either way | 54.2% | 58.7% | 61.3% | 44.3% |
A little more negative | 15.3% | 5.2% | 11.0% | 26.9% |
A lot more negative | 13.1% | 3.8% | 12.8% | 21.1% |
I don’t know | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
Q.13 Consider the following statement: “Granting more green cards will change America’s racial demographics.” | ||||
Which of the following best describes how this statement affects your opinion of Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more positive | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
A little more positive | 9.5% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 6.7% |
No effect either way | 64.6% | 73.9% | 68.7% | 54.4% |
A little more negative | 12.6% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 20.2% |
A lot more negative | 11.1% | 4.4% | 11.0% | 16.5% |
I don’t know | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
That statements about money and competing in a multipolar world were once again the most influential reveals that these are priorities for the white electorate. 47.4% of all respondents, 43.6% of Democrats, 46.6% of Independents, and 51.1% of Republicans said that the statement about US tax-payers directly and indirectly funding foreign students lowered their opinion of the green card proposal. 44.4% of respondents said with the statement about green card holders presenting a national security risk in a multipolar world lowered their opinion of the proposal, with only minor variation across party lines.
40.9% of all respondents said that the statement about US citizens having to compete with foreign-born students lowered their opinion of the green card proposal, with only very slight variation across party lines.
35.9% of all respondents, 30.4% of Democrats, 33.2% of Independents, and 41.5% of Democrats said that the statement about how skilled legal immigrants would hurt the middle and professional classes lowered their opinion of the green card proposal.
28.4% of all respondents, 38% of Republicans, 23.8% of Independents, and even 9% of Democrats said that the statement about immigrants tending to lean Democrat lowered their opinion of the green card proposal. This shows that Republicans are not alone in being concerned about the electoral consequences of legal immigration.
23.7% of all respondents, 36.7% of Republicans, 20.5% of Independents, and even 10.6% of Democrats said that the statement about changing racial demographics lowered their opinion of the green card proposal. This is substantially higher than the number of those who said that the statement about the green card proposal increasing diversity lowered their opinion of it. This further reinforces how there is a significant segment of the white electorate who may be open to white identity politics.
We next asked if respondents thought that Trump’s green card proposal affected whether Trump would be tough on illegal immigration:
Q.14 What is your opinion on the following statement: “Trump’s green card proposal makes it doubtful that he will be tough on undocumented immigration.” | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
Strongly agree | 6.0% | 4.6% | 8.5% | 5.6% |
Slightly agree | 15.6% | 15.9% | 16.2% | 14.6% |
Neither agree nor disagree | 26.5% | 34.4% | 27.7% | 19.0% |
Slightly disagree | 21.6% | 18.8% | 22.0% | 23.4% |
Strongly disagree | 28.2% | 23.1% | 23.2% | 36.2% |
I don’t know | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
21.6% of all respondents agreed to some extent that Trump’s green card proposal makes it less likely that he will be tough on illegal immigration with slight variation across party lines (the term “undocumented” was used for neutrality). Many more respondents at 49.8% disagreed to some extent, and with 23.4% of Republicans slightly disagreeing and 36.2% strongly disagreeing.
A small but consistent number of Republicans rated the negative statements about the green card proposal as making them more likely to support it, and it is reasonable to assume that they responded this way out of loyalty to Trump, who he is frequently attacked, or to signal disagreement with the statements. This, combined with strong Republican disagreement that the green card proposal makes it less likely that Trump will be tough on illegal immigration suggests that it would be best to separate criticism of legal immigration policies from Trump and other popular figures who propose them. It is likely that we would have gotten different responses if we had not mentioned Trump after the first question.
To conclude, we asked respondents the first two questions again about their opinion of Trump’s green card proposal and whether it affected the likelihood they would vote for Trump.
Q.15 After taking this poll, what is your opinion on Donald Trump’s green card proposal? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
Strongly support | 9.1% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 6.7% |
Slightly support | 28.8% | 27.5% | 30.8% | 28.1% |
Neither support nor oppose | 26.5% | 28.9% | 22.9% | 27.1% |
Slightly oppose | 17.9% | 15.0% | 16.8% | 20.9% |
Strongly oppose | 15.8% | 13.3% | 17.7% | 16.5% |
I don’t know | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
Q.16 After taking this poll, which of the following best describes the affect Donald Trump’s green card proposal has on the likelihood that you will vote for him? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
A lot more likely | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 5.7% |
A little more likely | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% |
No effect either way | 85.7% | 89.6% | 87.2% | 81.7% |
A little less likely | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% |
A lot less likely | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
I don’t know | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
There was no real discernable change in how respondents would vote before and after taking the poll.
However, there was a marked change in their support for the green card proposal which is what really matters. After taking the poll, 33.7% of all respondents, 28.3% of Democrats, 34.5% of Independents, and 37.4% of Republicans opposed the green card proposal. In comparison, only 23.5% of all respondents, 17.9% of Democrats, 23.8% of Independents, and 28% of Republicans opposed the green card proposal at the start of the poll.
This amounts to an increase in opposition among all respondents by 10.2%, 10.4% among Democrats, 10.7% among Independents, and 9.4% among Republicans.
This shows that it is easy change the public mind against awarding green cards to college graduates, and by extension, legal immigration as a whole. This change in attitude was brought about by a simple poll which took respondents about 6 minutes on average to complete. And while most of the statements were critical of the green card proposal, three statements were supportive of the proposal.
It was likely that Trump was intending to pander to donors due to the podcast he made the proposal on. But if he was intending to pander to voters, he failed. There was virtually no difference between how respondents intended to vote before and after taking the poll:
Q.3 How do you plan on voting in the 2024 presidential election? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
Donald Trump | 41.7% | 2.9% | 26.8% | 84.9% |
Joe Biden | 34.7% | 82.1% | 28.4% | 2.6% |
Another candidate | 8.7% | 4.6% | 15.9% | 4.9% |
I am undecided | 10.6% | 8.1% | 20.4% | 5.3% |
I don’t plan on voting | 4.4% | 2.3% | 8.5% | 2.3% |
Q.17 After taking this poll, how do you plan on voting in the 2024 presidential election? | ||||
Results by Party | % | % | % | |
% | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
Donald Trump | 41.2% | 2.6% | 26.8% | 84.0% |
Joe Biden | 35.1% | 82.4% | 28.7% | 3.0% |
Another candidate | 9.0% | 5.5% | 15.9% | 4.9% |
I am undecided | 10.1% | 7.2% | 19.5% | 5.6% |
I don’t plan on voting | 4.6% | 2.3% | 9.1% | 2.6% |
So while his green card proposal didn’t hurt Trump electorally, it certainly didn’t help him either. Candidates would be wise to heed that in regards to immigration, pandering doesn’t pay.
To summarize, key takeaways are that:
- Among the white electorate, opposition to liberalizing green cards can be quickly and easily increased by about 10% across party lines through short and simple statements.
- Economics and the need to compete in a multipolar world are the most effective arguments both for and against liberalizing green cards. Immigration skeptics should prioritize winning these arguments, and it is easy to win them.
- It is reasonable to assume that the above applies to legal immigration as a whole if the same or similar arguments are used.
- A significant segment of the white electorate might be adjacent to or open to white identity politics.
- It is best to separate criticism of legal immigration from criticism of individual politicians if those politicians are popular.
- Pandering on immigration might not always lose votes and especially in highly polarized elections, but it won’t gain any votes either.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PQocqwvjhY
[2] It should be noted that the Presidential Debate was held on June 27.
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