55.1% of all respondents and 85.6% of Republicans support deporting all or almost all illegal immigrants.
48.7% of Republicans, 28.9% of Independents, and even 7.4% of Democrats would oppose immigration if it is changing the racial demographics of the US.
42.9% of all respondents and 67.7% of Republicans support prohibiting illegal immigrants from using non-emergency services as California’s Prop 187 attempted to before it was overturned.
About 28% of all respondents would support a national divorce for states who disagree with the federal government on immigration, regardless of who is president.
By David Zsutty
In December, 2023, Donald Trump stated of illegal immigrants that “They’re poisoning the blood of our country. They’re coming into our country from Africa, from Asia, all over the world.”
Trump has also recently promised mass deportations if he is re-elected. And in May, 2024, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 56% of US voters were in favor of deporting all illegal immigrants, while 36% supported holding illegal immigrants in deportation camps pending deportation.[1]
Meanwhile in Germany, a remix of a techno song of with the lyrics “Ausländer raus” or “foreigners out” has gone viral despite state disapproval.
These developments inspired us to explore the topics of immigration and repatriation, and in greater depth than the Reuters/Ipsos poll. The Homeland Institute polled 1136 respondents who are characteristic of registered white American voters. This poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3% and was conducted from May 29 through June 11, 2024.
- General Attitudes Towards Immigration
Before diving into questions about specific pro or anti-immigration policies, we began by exploring respondents’ general attitude towards immigration. First, we asked respondents their opinion on Donald Trump’s aforementioned statement on how undocumented immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country.
| Q.1 In December of 2023, Donald Trump stated of undocumented immigrants that “They’re poisoning the blood of our country. They’re coming into our country from Africa, from Asia, all over the world.” Which of the following best describes your opinion on this statement? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 22.6% | 1.9% | 12.8% | 46.9% |
| Slightly agree | 17.7% | 5.3% | 19.7% | 26.9% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 7.7% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% |
| Slightly disagree | 8.8% | 6.6% | 13.2% | 7.4% |
| Strongly disagree | 42.3% | 80.6% | 43.4% | 9.4% |
| I don’t know | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
More respondents at 51.1% disagreed with Trump’s statement compared to 40.3% who agreed. While 73.8% of Republicans strongly or slightly agreed, they were vastly outnumbered by Democrats and Independents who disagreed. 80.6% of Democrats were in lockstep in strongly disagreeing.
We next asked respondents their opinion on whether immigrants enrich our society and help our economy.
| Q.2 Which of the following best describes your opinion on this statement: “Immigrants enrich our society.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 29.5% | 56.8% | 26.3% | 8.3% |
| Slightly agree | 29.3% | 31.9% | 33.2% | 25.1% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 15.4% | 6.6% | 17.8% | 20.9% |
| Slightly disagree | 13.3% | 3.0% | 12.8% | 22.0% |
| Strongly disagree | 11.9% | 1.1% | 8.6% | 23.5% |
| I don’t know | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Q.3 Which of the following best describes your opinion on this statement: “Immigrants help our economy.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly agree | 27.2% | 55.1% | 23.7% | 6.1% |
| Slightly agree | 24.0% | 28.5% | 25.7% | 19.3% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 16.8% | 11.1% | 20.1% | 19.1% |
| Slightly disagree | 13.5% | 3.0% | 13.8% | 22.4% |
| Strongly disagree | 17.6% | 1.7% | 15.1% | 32.7% |
| I don’t know | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
Overall, more respondents agreed that immigrants enrich our society and help our economy than disagreed. There was a clear trend of Democrats being very pro-immigration, Independents moderately pro-immigration, and Republicans anti-immigration. Interestingly, there was slightly higher skepticism about whether immigrants help our economy.
Democrats were also more likely to answer that they strongly agreed or disagreed than Republicans and Independents. Democrats were also significantly less likely to answer “neither agree nor disagree” on whether immigrants enrich society and help the economy. This shows that Democrats have more emotional intensity about immigration than Republicans. Opponents to immigration will have to muster the same emotional intensity as the Left if they are to be successful.
Note that these two questions were about immigrants while Donald Trump’s quote was about illegal immigrants. There is a stark divide in the public mind between legal and illegal immigration, which was well-elucidated by the next question in which we asked respondents their opinion on the following statement: “Undocumented immigrants are a net negative, but legal immigrants are a net positive.”
| Q.4 Which of the following best describes your opinion on this statement: “Undocumented immigrants are a net negative, but legal immigrants are a net positive.” | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Agree | 51.6% | 28.0% | 53.0% | 70.9% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 15.8% | 22.7% | 14.8% | 11.2% |
| Disagree, undocumented immigrants are a net positive too | 20.2% | 40.4% | 19.1% | 2.7% |
| Disagree, legal immigrants are a net negative too | 7.2% | 1.4% | 6.3% | 12.8% |
| I don’t know | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 2.5% |
51.6% of all respondents and 70.9% of all Republicans agreed with this statement. 20.2% of all respondents and 40.4% of Democrats disagreed with it on the grounds that illegal immigrants (the term “undocumented” was used to reflect Leftist language) are a net positive too. Only 7.2% of all respondents and 12.8% of Republicans disagreed on the grounds that legal immigrants are a net negative too.
This is troubling for several reasons. First, legal immigrants can vote, and they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democrat.[2] Thus, legal immigration is a form of election interference.
Second, post-1965 Hart Celler Act, immigrants tend to be overwhelmingly non-white which is changing the culture and racial demographics of America as part of the Great Replacement. If left unchecked, this will result in White Genocide. (Our poll on the Great Replacement is available here.)
Third, legal immigrants, like illegal immigrants, tend to commit more crime and consume more social services than native born white Americans. Immigration apologists will oftentimes try to dispute this fact by conflating native born whites and blacks into a single category. This is transparently dishonest because blacks commit disproportionate amounts of crime despite being only 13% of the US population.
Internet pundits frequently characterize the centrist stance of “so long as they come here to replace us legally” as a “boomer meme” common among older conservatives. But unlike Zionism, we found that this is not true. (Our poll on Foreign Policy is available here.)
| All | All Age 18-29 | Republicans 18-29 | |
| Agree | 51.6% | 36.8% | 69.6% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 15.8% | 21.5% | 8.9% |
| Disagree, undocumented immigrants are a net positive too | 20.2% | 26.8% | 5.4% |
| Disagree, legal immigrants are a net negative too | 7.2% | 3.8% | 8.9% |
| I don’t know | 5.2% | 11.0% | 7.1% |
A supermajority of young Republicans at 69.6% agreed that illegal immigrants are bad but that legal immigrants are good.[3] Only 8.9% of republicans age 18-29 disagreed on the grounds that legal immigrants are a net negative too. While this number was higher than their age bracket, it was still lower than the Republican average.
In Europe, the opposite is true with the youth spearheading the charge against open borders by voting for supposedly “far right” parties.[4] For example, in Germany, it was thought that lowering the voting age would increase Green and other Leftist votes. But this backfired, with young voters abandoning the Greens while driving AfD’s (Alternative for Germany) electoral surge.[5]
Why is the American white youth softer on immigration than the European youth? What could change their opinion? The prevalence of being hard on illegal immigration while being soft on legal immigration is a huge problem. But identifying the problem, and its true extent, is the first step towards solving it.
2. Immigration Extremism
Angelo Plume has begun to popularize the term “immigration extremists” to describe Leftists who advocate for open borders. His reasoning is that even if immigration is good, there can still be too much of a good thing. But the proponents of open borders treat immigration as a categorical imperative to be pursued no matter the cost, and which there can never be too much of.
To explore the phenomenon of immigration extremism we asked respondents about several policies to attract and keep immigrants, including several financial incentives.
| Q. 5 Which of the following best describes your opinion on offering migrants free housing through paying for hotel rooms or building camps to encourage migration? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 4.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Slightly support | 10.9% | 23.0% | 10.2% | 1.6% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 11.6% | 20.5% | 12.8% | 3.4% |
| Slightly oppose | 13.6% | 20.8% | 15.8% | 6.3% |
| Strongly oppose | 56.6% | 20.5% | 55.9% | 88.1% |
| I don’t know | 2.7% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Q. 6 Which of the following best describes your opinion on the government or charities having programs in which migrants are matched with volunteer families for housing? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 21.7% | 44.6% | 18.4% | 3.6% |
| Slightly support | 21.6% | 33.0% | 24.3% | 10.5% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 17.1% | 13.6% | 22.7% | 16.6% |
| Slightly oppose | 8.7% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 13.5% |
| Strongly oppose | 28.7% | 3.3% | 23.4% | 54.0% |
| I don’t know | 2.2% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Q. 7 Which of the following best describes your opinion on offering migrants a $500 monthly stipend to encourage migration? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 3.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Slightly support | 5.7% | 12.7% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 10.4% | 18.8% | 10.9% | 2.5% |
| Slightly oppose | 13.7% | 23.5% | 14.5% | 5.4% |
| Strongly oppose | 65.2% | 35.2% | 65.5% | 91.3% |
| I don’t know | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Q. 8 Which of the following best describes your opinion on offering migrants free or subsidized health care and/or health insurance to encourage migration? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 7.1% | 15.8% | 4.3% | 0.4% |
| Slightly support | 9.0% | 19.4% | 6.9% | 1.8% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 10.6% | 17.7% | 12.5% | 3.4% |
| Slightly oppose | 10.8% | 16.9% | 13.5% | 4.0% |
| Strongly oppose | 61.0% | 27.1% | 61.2% | 90.1% |
| I don’t know | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Q.9 Which of the following best describes your opinion on offering migrants free or subsidized education and/or training to encourage migration? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 10.1% | 21.6% | 7.2% | 1.1% |
| Slightly support | 13.6% | 28.5% | 10.2% | 3.8% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 10.7% | 16.1% | 11.8% | 5.6% |
| Slightly oppose | 10.0% | 15.8% | 11.5% | 4.3% |
| Strongly oppose | 53.9% | 15.8% | 57.2% | 84.3% |
| I don’t know | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Q.10 Which of the following best describes your opinion on enacting hate speech laws to protect migrants from hate, intimidation, and discrimination in order to create a society that is more welcoming to migrants? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 27.2% | 55.4% | 25.0% | 5.8% |
| Slightly support | 15.8% | 21.6% | 20.1% | 7.4% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 18.6% | 11.6% | 20.1% | 23.8% |
| Slightly oppose | 7.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 11.7% |
| Strongly oppose | 28.5% | 5.8% | 25.7% | 49.1% |
| I don’t know | 2.3% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
These immigration incentives are not speculative. As just one example, the US federal government gave San Diego County and the Catholic Charities’ San Diego branch $19.6 million each for $39.2 million total to provide various services to migrants, such as housing.[6] In another, Germany has been paying migrants who claim (oftentimes fraudulently) to be asylum-seekers $430-540 a month.[7]
Overall, respondents were overwhelmingly opposed to offering financial incentives to encourage immigration. For some financial incentives, even more Democrats were opposed than in favor. For example, 18.8% of Democrats were slightly or strongly in support of a $500 monthly stipend, compared to 58.7% of Democrats who opposed it.
However, there is still a substantial segment of Democrats who support certain financial incentives. For example, 50.1% of Democrats support offering migrants free or subsidized education and/or training, and 35.2% support offering migrants free or subsidized health care and/or health insurance.
This support for financial incentives among Democrats combined with their existence in real life decisively debunks the argument that immigrants are good for the economy. This is an important point to make because once the economic justification for immigration is removed, there are few arguments left aside from white guilt and vague talk of cultural enrichment centered around ethnic cuisine.
Republicans were united in strongly opposing financial incentives. For example, 88.1% of Republicans oppose offering migrants free housing through paying for hotel rooms or building camps and 91.3% oppose a $500 monthly stipend.
However, it is disturbing that Republican emotional intensity in opposing financial incentives did not translate over into opposing European-style hate speech laws. Despite contradicting the black letter law of the First Amendment, only 49.1% of Republicans strongly opposed enacting hate speech laws, and only 11.7% slightly opposed, for a total of 60.8%.
Among all respondents, more were in support of hate speech laws at 43% than opposed at 36%, with 18.6% neither supporting nor opposing such laws.
3. Priorities: Money, Electoral Politics, and Race
We also asked respondents whether the demographic and electoral consequences of immigration affected their views on immigration.
| Q.18 Assuming that immigration is changing the racial demographics of the United States, how would this affect your opinion on immigration? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Support a lot more | 2.8% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Support a little more | 4.1% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| No effect either way | 61.2% | 77.3% | 62.2% | 46.2% |
| Oppose a little more | 9.9% | 4.4% | 12.8% | 12.6% |
| Oppose a lot more | 19.5% | 3.0% | 16.1% | 36.1% |
| I don’t know | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% |
| Q.19 The Pew Research Center found that substantially more immigrants tend to identify as or lean Democrat than Republican. How does this affect your opinion on immigration? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Support a lot more | 5.0% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Support a little more | 7.7% | 19.1% | 5.3% | 0.2% |
| No effect either way | 55.5% | 66.2% | 66.4% | 37.9% |
| Oppose a little more | 8.5% | 1.7% | 7.6% | 15.0% |
| Oppose a lot more | 21.7% | 1.1% | 14.1% | 44.4% |
| I don’t know | 1.6% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
Respondents were surprisingly indifferent about the racial consequences of immigration, with 61.2% of all respondents and even 46.2% of Republicans saying that it had “no effect either way.” However, 29.4% of all respondents, 48.7% of Republicans, 28.9% of Independents, and even 7.4% of Democrats would oppose immigration if it is changing the racial demographics of the US. This reveals that there is a small yet substantial segment of the white electorate which is amenable to white identity politics.
Respondents were more interested in the electoral, rather than racial, consequences of immigration. For example, 59.4% of Republicans replied that the fact that immigrants tend to identify as or lean Democrats makes them oppose immigration, while 30.5% of Democrats said that this makes them support immigration more.
The white electorate is primarily concerned with the financial consequences of immigration followed by the electoral consequences, with racial consequences being a low priority.
Thus in America, a good short-term strategy is to emphasize the financial impact of immigration, including legal immigration. But a long-term strategy of building white identity and explaining why race and culture matter is also called for. Financial concerns cannot inspire the emotional intensity that is needed to counter the Left’s emotional intensity on immigration.
There was also stiff resistance across party lines to allowing illegal immigrants to vote, with 79.2% of all respondents and even 61.8% of Democrats being opposed:
| Q.20 Which of the following best describes your opinion on allowing undocumented immigrants and legal resident aliens to vote in local, state, and federal elections? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 3.9% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Slightly support | 7.0% | 14.4% | 6.6% | 1.1% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 8.4% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 2.5% |
| Slightly oppose | 11.5% | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.1% |
| Strongly oppose | 67.7% | 41.0% | 65.1% | 92.2% |
| I don’t know | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Q.21 Which of the following best describes your opinion on counting undocumented immigrants and legal resident aliens on the census for purpose of apportioning Congressional seats? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 10.6% | 22.4% | 9.5% | 1.1% |
| Slightly support | 12.0% | 25.2% | 9.2% | 2.5% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 11.8% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 4.7% |
| Slightly oppose | 11.4% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Strongly oppose | 51.1% | 15.5% | 50.0% | 82.3% |
| I don’t know | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
While opposition to counting illegal immigrants in the US census for apportioning Congressional seats was also high, it was somewhat lower with 62.5% opposing it. This was driven by how 47.6% of Democrats support counting illegal immigrants for Congressional seats, with only 29.6% opposing this policy. Despite widespread opposition in a supposed democracy to counting illegal immigrants for apportionment, it is current US policy.[8]
This is important because while illegal immigrants cannot vote directly, they tend to cluster in urban, Democrat states and districts, thereby giving Democrats more congressional and electoral college votes.
Counting illegal immigrants to apportion Congressional seats is blatant foreign election influence.
4. Voluntary Repatriation and Deportation
We also asked respondents their opinion on incentives to encourage voluntary repatriation.
| Q.11 Which of the following best describes your opinion on prohibiting undocumented immigrants from using non-emergency health care, public education, and other services to encourage them to voluntarily repatriate themselves to their homelands? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 27.6% | 6.4% | 22.0% | 49.3% |
| Slightly support | 15.3% | 9.4% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 14.2% | 14.7% | 17.8% | 11.7% |
| Slightly oppose | 12.5% | 21.3% | 14.1% | 4.5% |
| Strongly oppose | 27.8% | 46.3% | 23.7% | 13.9% |
| I don’t know | 2.6% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Q.12 Which of the following best describes your opinion on offering migrants a one-way airplane ticket and $5,000 to encourage them to voluntarily repatriate themselves to their homelands? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 7.8% |
| Slightly support | 9.1% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 8.3% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 17.2% | 22.4% | 18.4% | 12.3% |
| Slightly oppose | 19.3% | 19.1% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| Strongly oppose | 45.9% | 42.4% | 42.8% | 49.1% |
| I don’t know | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| Q.13 18 US states and the District of Columbia currently offer driver’s licenses to people regardless of their immigration status. Which of the following best describes your opinion on prohibiting undocumented immigrants from obtaining a driver’s license to encourage them to voluntarily repatriate themselves to their homelands? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 34.4% | 10.2% | 27.0% | 58.3% |
| Slightly support | 13.2% | 14.1% | 16.4% | 9.6% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 12.1% | 16.3% | 11.8% | 8.5% |
| Slightly oppose | 11.0% | 15.0% | 15.8% | 3.8% |
| Strongly oppose | 29.3% | 42.7% | 25.7% | 17.9% |
| I don’t know | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
The most popular incentive was prohibiting illegal immigrants from obtaining a driver’s license, with 47.6% of all respondents, 67.9% of Republicans, 43.4% of Independents, and even 24.3% of Democrats supporting this policy to some degree. Prohibiting illegal immigrants from using non-emergency services as California’s Proposition 187 attempted to was also slightly more popular than unpopular overall, with 42.9% of all respondents, 40.1% of Independents, and 67.7% of Republicans supporting it with 40.3% of all respondents opposing it.
Offering migrants $5,000 and a one-way plane ticket was deeply unpopular. 65.2% of all respondents opposed this incentive, with little variance across party lines. That only 16.1% of Republicans supported it further reinforces how economics is a top priority for most Republicans, as opposed to race and culture. However, it is a fact that immigrants both legal and illegal tend to be a net drain economically and ultimately do more damage than $5,000 through social services, crime, healthcare, education, etc.
Thus, explaining the deleterious economic effects of immigration with hard numbers would be an effective way to increase opposition to immigration among Republicans.
Aside from voluntary repatriation, there is also forced deportation. We next asked respondents their opinion on a number of more aggressive policies.
| Q.14 Which of the following best describes your opinion on immediately deporting undocumented immigrants and legal resident aliens who are convicted of or plead guilty to a felony to their homelands? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 56.7% | 30.5% | 55.6% | 80.3% |
| Slightly support | 19.1% | 29.1% | 19.1% | 11.0% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 10.7% | 18.3% | 12.2% | 3.8% |
| Slightly oppose | 6.2% | 11.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Strongly oppose | 4.9% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| I don’t know | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Q.15 Which of the following best describes your opinion on mandating law enforcement to investigate the immigration status of anyone who is arrested if they reasonably suspect that the arrestee is an undocumented immigrant? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 43.8% | 14.4% | 36.8% | 73.8% |
| Slightly support | 18.4% | 19.4% | 21.7% | 16.1% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 10.1% | 14.4% | 10.9% | 5.8% |
| Slightly oppose | 9.6% | 18.8% | 10.2% | 1.8% |
| Strongly oppose | 16.0% | 30.5% | 17.1% | 1.6% |
| I don’t know | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
Surprisingly, there was stronger support for these policies than for incentives to encourage voluntary deportation. 75.8% of all respondents and even 59.6% of Democrats support immediately deporting undocumented immigrants and legal resident aliens who are convicted of or plead guilty to a felony. Support for mandating law enforcement to investigate the immigration status of arrestees was slightly lower yet still high, with 62.2% of all respondents supporting this policy and 25.6% opposing it.
This suggests that law and order closely follow economics in importance to the white electorate.
In May, 2024, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 56% of US voters, 85% of Republicans, and even 61% of Democrats support deporting all or almost all illegal aliens.[9] That poll also found that 36% supported holding illegal immigrants in detention camps pending deportation, with 54% opposing detention camps. We attempted to replicate their results:
| Q.22 Which of the following best describes your opinion on deporting all or almost all undocumented immigrants? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 40.6% | 8.9% | 36.2% | 70.4% |
| Slightly support | 14.5% | 12.7% | 15.8% | 15.2% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 6.1% |
| Slightly oppose | 11.6% | 18.6% | 12.8% | 5.4% |
| Strongly oppose | 24.7% | 50.7% | 24.7% | 2.0% |
| I don’t know | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Q.23 Which of the following best describes your opinion on holding undocumented immigrants in detention camps while awaiting deportation? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 24.3% | 4.4% | 17.4% | 46.0% |
| Slightly support | 18.0% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 25.1% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 14.0% | 12.2% | 19.4% | 12.6% |
| Slightly oppose | 11.9% | 15.5% | 13.8% | 7.6% |
| Strongly oppose | 29.3% | 54.6% | 29.3% | 6.7% |
| I don’t know | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
Our poll replicated the findings of the Reuters/Ipsos poll in that 55.1% of all respondents and 85.6% of Republicans in our poll support deporting all or almost all illegal immigrants. Our poll differed from the Reuters/Ipsos poll in that only 21.6% of Democrats support mass deportations of illegals. Furthermore, 42.3% of our respondents support the use of detention camps while 41.2% are opposed to such camps.
The differences between our polls are most likely explained by how the Reuters/Ipsos poll targeted US voters of all races, while our poll only targeted white voters. This suggests that non-white Democrats are significantly more amenable to tough immigration policies than white Democrats. The differences in attitudes towards immigration, repatriation, and deportation by race merit further research.
5. Defiance and National Divorce
Despite being a nominal democracy, much of US policy is driven by judicial fiat from unelected judges. The courts tend to issue pro-open borders rulings, such as when Mariana Pfaelzer, a federal district judge, overturned Proposition 187 in California. However, courts sometimes issue anti-immigration rulings, such as when a federal judge in Texas ruled that Obama’s DACA program was unlawful.
We asked respondents if they support elected officials defying the courts on immigration:
| Q.17 In 1994, Californian voters passed Prop 187, which would have prohibited illegal immigrants from using non-emergency health care, public education, and other services in California. A federal judge in California then ruled that Prop 187 was unconstitutional. Which of the following best describes your opinion on elected officials who are anti-immigration defying or ignoring the courts if the courts issue pro-immigration rulings? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 12.2% | 3.0% | 9.2% | 22.0% |
| Slightly support | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 14.6% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 20.1% | 17.7% | 20.4% | 22.0% |
| Slightly oppose | 17.5% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 10.5% |
| Strongly oppose | 33.4% | 44.3% | 31.3% | 25.1% |
| I don’t know | 6.1% | 3.9% | 8.6% | 5.8% |
| Q.16 In 2012, Barack Obama’s administration enacted the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program which protected migrants who came to the US as children from deportation. In 2023, a federal judge in Texas ruled that the DACA program was unlawful. Which of the following best describes your opinion on elected officials who are pro-immigration defying or ignoring the courts if the courts issue anti-immigration rulings? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 11.2% | 17.7% | 9.9% | 5.6% |
| Slightly support | 12.1% | 20.2% | 13.5% | 4.3% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 19.5% | 22.7% | 24.0% | 14.3% |
| Slightly oppose | 14.0% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 10.8% |
| Strongly oppose | 37.0% | 15.2% | 30.9% | 59.4% |
| I don’t know | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% |
For all respondents, support for and opposition to elected officials defying or ignoring the courts on immigration was almost the same regardless whether the courts were pro or anti-immigration. Roughly 22% of all respondents support elected officials defying judges on immigration, while roughly 50% oppose this. 36.6% of Republicans support anti-immigration elected officials defying pro-immigration courts, as did 37.8% of Democrats if the roles were reversed.
This further demonstrates that legalism is widespread in white American society, for better or for worse.
We next asked respondents their opinion on the states defying the federal government or pursuing a national divorce due to differences on immigration depending upon whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the 2024 election.
| Q.24 If Donald Trump is re-elected in 2024 and proceeds to enact anti-migrant policies, which of the following best describes your opinion on states which are pro-migrant defying or ignoring the federal government? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 17.2% | 29.4% | 16.1% | 6.3% |
| Slightly support | 11.7% | 20.2% | 12.8% | 3.6% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 15.1% | 22.4% | 17.8% | 7.8% |
| Slightly oppose | 10.4% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 7.8% |
| Strongly oppose | 42.3% | 12.2% | 36.8% | 71.7% |
| I don’t know | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% |
| Q.26 If Joe Biden is re-elected in 2024 and proceeds to enact pro-migrant policies, which of the following best describes your opinion on states which are anti-migrant defying or ignoring the federal government? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 17.7% | 2.8% | 15.5% | 31.8% |
| Slightly support | 10.7% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 12.8% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 17.8% | 17.2% | 22.0% | 15.9% |
| Slightly oppose | 13.5% | 16.3% | 17.4% | 8.5% |
| Strongly oppose | 36.9% | 54.3% | 30.6% | 26.2% |
| I don’t know | 3.4% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| Q.25 If Donald Trump is re-elected in 2024 and proceeds to enact anti-migrant policies, which of the following best describes your opinion on states which are pro-migrant leaving the United States through a peaceful national divorce? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 15.2% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 23.8% |
| Slightly support | 13.1% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 15.7% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 18.9% | 19.1% | 20.7% | 17.3% |
| Slightly oppose | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.8% |
| Strongly oppose | 40.3% | 48.5% | 42.4% | 33.2% |
| I don’t know | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% |
| Q.27 If Joe Biden is re-elected in 2024 and proceeds to enact pro-migrant policies, which of the following best describes your opinion on states which are anti-migrant leaving the United States through a peaceful national divorce? | ||||
| Results by Party | ||||
| All | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | |
| Strongly support | 15.2% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 23.3% |
| Slightly support | 11.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 15.2% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 21.0% | 20.2% | 23.0% | 20.2% |
| Slightly oppose | 7.9% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 7.2% |
| Strongly oppose | 38.3% | 50.1% | 39.1% | 28.0% |
| I don’t know | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% |
Support for the states defying a president on immigration was slightly higher than support for elected officials defying the courts, with roughly 28% of all respondents supporting this course of action for both scenarios for the 2024 presidential election. However, support for state defiance against a president was still vastly outweighed by opposition, with roughly half of all respondents being in opposition in each scenario.
A key finding is that there was scarcely any difference in how people responded based on the scenario presented. For each electoral scenario, about 28% of all respondents supported a national divorce while about 47% opposed it. And unlike elected officials defying the courts on immigration, there was scarcely any change at all across party lines.
If Donald Trump is re-elected and enacts anti-immigration policies, 18% of Democrats, 23% of Independents, and 39.5% of Republicans would support pro-immigration states leaving through a peaceful national divorce. If Joe Biden is re-elected and enacts pro-immigration policies, 19.7% of Democrats, 21.7% of Independents, and 35.2% of Republicans would support anti-immigration states leaving through a peaceful national divorce.
This strongly suggests that support for a National Divorce is independent of who wins and loses in electoral politics, and is thus more resilient. While this reduces the hopes for a blue state secession, it increases the long-term likelihood that Red America could one day kick out troublesome Blue States, similar to how Malaysia kicked out Singapore due to irreconcilable differences. This also casts doubt on the Leftist boast that Red States couldn’t survive without Blue States, as they are unwilling to entertain the idea of a national divorce for what is a very emotionally charged issue for many of them.
6. Conclusion
To summarize, key takeaways are that:
- Democrats are more emotionally intense in supporting immigration than Republicans are in opposing it.
- There is a stark divide in the mind of the white electorate between legal and illegal immigration. This divide needs to be bridged and studied further.
- White voters, and especially Republicans, value economics and law and order more than identitarian issues such as race and culture.
- It is necessary to show in hard numbers how legal immigrants are a net economic negative too.
- Support for legal immigration is not a “boomer meme” and is actually more widespread among young voters than older voters.
- Support for mass deportations of illegal aliens and felons is high, as are repatriation policies which target illegal immigrants who are an economic drain on the system.
- Substantial numbers of Democrats and Independents are opposed to offering immigrants economic incentives.
- Support for elected officials defying the courts on immigration is low.
- Support for a national divorce over immigration is also low, but somewhat higher than support for defying the courts.
- Support for a national divorce is independent of electoral politics, and thus highly resilient to passing changes in fortune.
[1] https://millionvoices.org/56-of-voters-support-illegal-immigrant-deportation/
[2] https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/database/compare/party-affiliation/by/state/among/immigrant-status/immigrants/
[3] The age cohorts were not adjusted to match population-level party ID, ideology, BLM support, etc. However, they are still suggestive.
[4] https://t.me/HuWhitePapers/1112
[5] https://x.com/EuropeElects/status/1799894153112719738 see also https://www.dw.com/en/afd-how-germanys-far-right-won-over-young-voters/a-69324954
[6] https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2024/04/20/san-diego-county-gets-196m-in-federal-funding-for-migrant-services-but-must-now-decide-how-to-spend-it/
[7] https://www.dw.com/en/german-government-agrees-payment-card-for-asylum-seekers/a-68445336
[8] https://www.census.gov/topics/public-sector/congressional-apportionment/about/faqs.html
[9] https://millionvoices.org/56-of-voters-support-illegal-immigrant-deportation/